Stormy weather is expected this week, while tropical moisture may increase flood risk later in winter

The calm weather is expected to last until Monday, but then there is a chance of heavy rain for northern and central areas.

Meanwhile, Niwa has published its seasonal outlook for the three months from July.

The rest of the winter and early spring would probably be warmer than average, but tropical moisture plumes can cause heavy rainfall which can increase the risk of flooding.

For this week, MetService meteorologist Andrew James said there was a southeasterly flow and ridge of high pressure entering the next day or two.

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A few low-pressure systems are expected to traverse northern and central parts of the country, starting Tuesday, with a break on Wednesday, before another system hits Thursday.

“There is a possibility of high rainfall and strong winds with these systems, but with these types of warm low systems from the north, there is always some uncertainty,” James said.

In the three-month forecast, Niwa said a lack of southern airflow could mean that cold nights and frosts are less common and shorter than normal.

Rainfall was probably near normal or above normal in the north and west of the North Island and north of the South Island. This will most likely be close to normal in all other regions.

Sea surface temperatures around the country ranged from 0.8C to 1.9C above average during June. It is expected that those warmer than usual seas would continue the country against prolonged cold.

There was a potential for more frequent spring anticyclones near the South Island, which could contribute to more eastern airflow and dry times.