Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, recently outlined three plausible scenarios in Ukraine.
In the first case, Russia’s continued advances into eastern Ukraine would break the Ukrainians’ will to fight and allow the Russian military to take over even more of the country. This result is Vladimir Putin’s new target after he was defeated in his first attempt to overthrow the Ukrainian government.
In the second scenario – the most likely, Haines said (during a public appearance in Washington last week) — Russia would dominate the east, but couldn’t go much further. The two countries would find themselves in a stalemate that Haines described as “a dragging battle.”
In the third scenario, Ukraine would halt Russia’s advance in the east and also succeed in launching counter-attacks. Ukraine has already recaptured some territory, especially in the southern part of the country, and some military experts expect a wider offensive soon.
Today’s newsletter provides an update on the war by examining a few questions that will help determine which of these three scenarios becomes the most likely.
Temporary or permanent
Has the tide finally turned or are Ukrainian troops on the cusp of more success?
The most recent phase of the war has gone well for Russia. The eastern part of Ukraine, known as the Donbas Region, has two provinces: Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia now controls virtually all of Luhansk and about 60 percent of Donetsk, according to Thomas Bullock, an analyst for Janes, a firm that specializes in intelligence matters.
Yesterday, Russian forces increased their shelling near Bakhmut, a Donetsk town that is a major Ukrainian supply hub. Russia used a similar tactic in Luhansk to clear Ukrainian troops and civilians before taking over towns.
“The Kremlin is sending the message that their overall plans have not changed and that everything is going according to plan,” said Anton Troianovski, head of The Times’ Moscow bureau. As a sign of confidence in the Kremlin, Russian media recently expressed plans to hold referendums in the conquered territories and formally annex them, Anton added.
But Ukraine continues to benefit from an influx of advanced weapons from the West. And there’s some reason to wonder if Ukrainian troops will soon be able to put those weapons to better use than they have so far.
In the early stages of the war, the US, EU and other Ukrainian allies sent relatively simple weapons, such as the shoulder-fired missile systems known as Javelins. Those weapons helped Ukraine defend territory against small groups of Russian troops. More recently, the West has sent more powerful artillery — such as the HIMARS, a truck-based missile system — intended to help Ukraine resist the massive build-up of Russian forces in the east.
Training someone to use a Javelin can only take a few hours, emphasizes my colleague Julian Barnes. Training troops to use a HIMARS can take days or weeks, as can transporting them to the battlefield. In the coming weeks, Julian said he would look into Ukraine using its growing stock of HIMARS to inflict more damage on Russian forces.
(Here’s more on the early effect of the HIMARS by Eric Schmitt and John Ismay of The Times.)
No Russian tour
Does Russia have no more troops?
Two recent developments give rise to astonishment. First, Russia has had to turn to outside forces, such as those of the Wagner groupa private company — to supplement their units, as my colleague Thomas Gibbons-Neff explained in his recent analysis of the war† Second, Putin ordered some of the troops involved in recent victories in the Donbas region to rest, suggesting those units were exhausted.
“US officials and outside analysts both agree that if Russia wants to move beyond the Donbas, they need to take a step they didn’t want to do: a mass mobilization,” Julian said. “Russia will have to draft compulsory military service, recall soldiers who have served before and take politically painful steps to rebuild their fighting force. Until now, Putin has not wanted to do that.”
Russia has far more resources than Ukraine, including soldiers and weapons. But Russia’s resources do have limits, especially if Putin is unwilling to spend political capital on a mass mobilization.
These limits raise the prospect that Ukraine can keep Russia’s gains in the east and slowly exhaust Russia’s forces with counterattacks and internal resistance – as well as Western economic sanctions. That situation, in turn, could lead to Putin accepting an eventual ceasefire that leaves most of Ukraine intact.
“That won’t be a perfect win,” Julian said, “but it could be realistic.”
Shell shock
But will Ukraine run out of troops even faster?
Both sides seem to be suffering equally high casualties – hundreds a day. As a result, Ukraine is increasingly reliant on troops with little training.
The surviving troops are also at risk of psychological damage. The mode of fighting in the east—an incessant exchange of artillery—is like the trench warfare of World War I, which gave rise to the term “shellshock,” notes my colleague Thomas.
“During the artillery shelling, all you can do is lie in the bomb shelter and wait for the shelling to be over,” a Ukrainian commander told The Times. “Some people are mentally damaged by such shelling. They appear to be psychologically unprepared for whatever they encounter.”
As uncertain as the future in Ukraine may be, the present is clearly dire, as Haines acknowledged last week when he outlined the three scenarios. “Basically,” she said, “the picture remains pretty grim.”
Related comment: “The best way to avoid the next war is to defeat it in this one.” The Economist magazine writes:referring to Putin.
THE LAST NEWS
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Advice from Wirecutter: Mattresses to reduce back pain†
Life lived: Kurt Markus’ black-and-white photographs captured the loneliness and grandeur of the disappearing frontier of the American West. He died at 75†
SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
A programming note: This new sports section is written by the staff of the athletic†
The future of college football on TV: With USC and UCLA ready to join the Big Ten conference, one question lingers: Is college football moving towards a Premier League configuration? It is possible. here’s how college football (on tv) is going to change forever†
Recruiting in Senegal, via Instagram: College football programs are intrigued by a 6-foot-5, 300-pound athlete from Senegal. He has never played football. And there’s this: Can he even reach the US?†
The next big name in NFL coaching searches: Meet 36-year-old Thomas Brown, Sean McVay’s next husband? for the Los Angeles Rams.
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ART AND IDEAS
The shock factor of fashion
Clothing had the ability to shock viewers with concepts that feel strange today, such as a flash of flesh or an absurd idea. At this summer’s couture shows in Paris, fashion houses have tried to prove that their industry can still shock.
One attempt stood out, writes Vanessa Friedman, The Times’ chief fashion critic: Iris van Herpen, whose use of 3D printers and laser cutters makes her clothes look like organic life forms. “They rewrite the physics of clothing and rethink the body without obliterating it, not in a cartoonish way, but in a most convincing way,” Vanessa writes.