IT is now only a matter of “when and how” – not “if” – Boris Johnson leaves as UK Prime Minister.
sk formally in Dublin and Brussels and you will get the correct answer that you never comment on the internal politics of another country. But plans for “a post-Johnson world” have been underway for a while in hopes that the man would be gone sooner rather than later.
Mr Johnson’s departure will revive hopes of a workable compromise to resolve the horrific Brexit crux. As things stand, the current standoff between the EU and the UK threatens everything from a trade war that is costing Irish jobs, to restricting Ireland’s access to the EU’s internal market of 450 million people re-taking Irish jobs. stake, even the prospect of a return from the border in Ireland, which could even endanger Irish lives again.
Since May 10, when Boris Johnson followed through on his threats to unilaterally abolish Northern Ireland’s special trade status after Brexit, the EU has written off any real negotiations with London. For the past two weeks, two key figures who know about these things have frankly stated that no progress can be made in resolving the Brexit squabble as long as Boris Johnson remains on the political ropes as Prime Minister.
Former Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, and former chief adviser to the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, spoke about this Brexit spat and how it is affecting the fragile peace in the north. Each of these played a key role in bringing about the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, and they have both been following events closely since British voters chose to leave the EU in June 2016.
Mr Ahern, Taoiseach from 1997 to 2008 told the Dublin-based International Institute of European Affairs that he understood Unionists’ fears that their British identity would be challenged by controls on goods entering the north from Britain. But he suggested that while Unionist fears can be appeased, this may not be enough.
“Their concerns are not insurmountable and in some cases not unreasonable,” he said. But he added that “as long as Boris Johnson remained in political trouble” it was likely that this Unionist change of heart would not be enough.
Mr Ahern said Boris Johnson was “clever and cunning” and had shown he could succeed in his career. “But as a negotiator, I don’t think he has any interest in negotiations,” the former Taoiseach added.
Jonathan Powell went a long way in a very interesting contribution to a hearing before an Oireachtas committee.
Mr Powell said the biggest problem with the current deadlock is the “lack of confidence”. He said the EU has so far been flexible in seeking compromises and may need to show more flexibility, which has been possible in real negotiations.
He said he did not believe that trust and meaningful negotiations between the UK and the EU were possible as long as Johnson remained prime minister.
“Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t really think so,” Powell said, adding that he hoped Johnson would finish the job soon. “The truth about what is happening with the Northern Ireland Protocol has little to do with Northern Ireland and a lot to do with the British Conservative Party,” he added.
“I know it sounds pretty hopeless to say, ‘Wait for a new prime minister.’ But as I hope that will happen fairly soon, if I were the Irish government and the European Commission, I would prepare for the negotiations after Boris Johnson,” Powell said.
Mr Powell said he thought a new Conservative leader – even a hard Brexiteer who gives in to anti-EU Tories – could well return to meaningful talks to reach a Brexit compromise. “That’s my hope and my faith, but I could be wrong,” he said.
This level of thinking is widely shared across the EU. The reality is that the Covid-19 backlog and the fallout from the war in Ukraine have masked the brutal reality that Brexit is currently wreaking havoc on Britain’s economy.
A course towards a trade dispute with Britain’s largest and closest trading partner is not in the interests of the British people. A new face to the head of London’s government offers scope to rekindle trust between the EU and the UK, leading to meaningful negotiations for a genuine compromise on Northern Ireland and other issues.
None of this will be easy – and absolutely nothing can be taken for granted. But Boris Johnson’s departure from the Prime Minister’s Office would be a very good start and offer new hopes for Brexit and Northern Ireland.