other heat and cold increase the risk of death in England and Wales — but rates vary depending on geographic location, according to a new study.
New risk estimates suggest: London and other urban areas had the highest heat-related death rate.
While cold-related deaths were highest in Northern England, Wales and the South West.
Researchers say the findings indicate that the effects of both heat and cold were stronger in poorer areas.
They argue that understanding these patterns is important when it comes to designing public health policies to protect vulnerable groups.
Detailed mapping of health burdens can help identify risk areas and population subgroups
Every year in England and Wales there were an average of nearly 800 additional deaths from heat — and more than 60,500 related to cold between 2000 and 2019, the study found.
The study was led by researchers from the Center on Climate Change and Planetary Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), in collaboration with the UK Health Security Agency and researchers from several European universities.
London had the highest heat-related death rate, with 3.21 additional deaths per 100,000 people, translating to 170 additional heat-related deaths per year.
The risk of death from the common cold was highest in north-east England and Wales, with a higher death rate of 140.45 and 136.95 deaths per 100,000 people, respectively.
The study found that London had the lowest risk associated with cold temperatures, with 113.97 deaths per 100,000 people (nearly 5,800 additional cold-related deaths per year).
dr. Antonio Gasparrini, professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at LSHTM and lead author of the study, said: “This study provides a thorough assessment of the health impacts of heat and cold in England and Wales, providing several epidemiological indicators for more than 37,000 areas across the two countries. .
“This includes estimates of the optimal temperature range, but also impact measurements such as excess mortality due to heat and cold.
“Detailed mapping of health burdens can help identify risk areas and population subgroups.
In particular, the results showed that the effects of both heat and cold were stronger in more deprived areas.
“Understanding these patterns is a critical step in designing effective public health policies at the local and national levels and protecting vulnerable groups, especially during the current cost of living crisis.”
The findings showed that the effects of cold, and to a lesser extent heat, were more common in deprived areas.
In addition, the elderly were most vulnerable to both heat and cold, with a death risk of those aged 85+ being twice that of those aged zero to 64.
The researchers argue for targeted policies and better adaptation strategies to prevent more serious health consequences of both heat and cold.
In the study, they analyzed 10.7 million deaths that occurred in England and Wales between 2000 and 2019 in more than 37,473 small areas with around 1,600 inhabitants.
dr. Pierre Masselot, research fellow in environmental epidemiology and statistics at LSHTM and co-author of the study, said: “The results come at a critical time as countries and communities face increasing health impacts from climate change and need to find effective ways to adapt to changing temperatures.
“The analytical framework also provides a flexible tool that can be adapted for future studies aimed at modeling temperature-related risks and impacts at the small area level under different climate change scenarios.”
The authors emphasize that while the study showed that excess mortality attributed to cold was significantly higher than that attributed to heat, these results should be interpreted with caution, as more cold than warm days were recorded throughout the year.
Funded by the Medical Research Council and the EU Horizon 2020 programme, the findings are published in The Lancet Planetary Health.