Europe’s largest car market, Germany, saw plug-in electric vehicles take a 26.0% market share in June, up from 23.6% year-on-year. Total auto volumes declined 18% year-on-year to 224,558 units, the lowest level in June in 25 years (except 2020). The Fiat 500e was Germany’s best-selling all-electric in June.
The combined share of 26.0% in June was made up of 14.4% battery electrics (BEVs) and 11.7% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). Their respective results a year ago were 12.2% and 11.4%.
Tesla’s production hiatus in Shanghai in the first and second quarters put a significant dent in BEV growth (across Europe) in June, which is normally a supply spike for the brand. Instead, “only” 2,908 Teslas were delivered to Germany in June 2022, compared to 8,045 in March – a deficit of more than 5,000 units.
If Tesla’s volumes had been in trend in June, other things being equal, BEVs would have taken 16.3% of the market and plug-ins combined 27.6%. Growth should be back in line by September, unless other disruptions arise.
Best Selling BEVs
With Tesla’s temporary headwinds, the Fiat 500e also took first place in June, with an impressive 2,973 units, well ahead of its previous record (March 2002, 1,991 units).
Tesla still got a decent 2,144 ModelY deliveries in June, in second place, followed by the venerable Volkswagen eUp! in the third.
New in the top 20 in June was the Renault Meganefollowing in 15th place, with 864 units.
Since monthly results are erratic, let’s go back for a rundown of the past quarter:
Shanghai’s Q1 and Q2 shutdowns have noticeably hampered Tesla’s volumes, albeit temporarily. Recall that Tesla easily took the #1 and #2 spots in Q1, with a combined 14,408 units. In the second quarter, Tesla volume temporarily fell 73% to 3,851 units, ranking 11th and 22nd.
However, this is not the time for Tesla’s competitors to put in a victory lap. With Shanghai bustling again and the Brandenburg facility now also operating at over 1,000 units per week, Tesla should have record volumes in Germany by the end of this year.
Here is the summary of the notable moves in the ranking in Q2 compared to Q1:
On the other hand, of course, there were some notable waterfalls:
In the case of the BMW i3, the decline was due to the recent shutdown of the production run. RIP for its bold design and innovative engineering.
There are a few BEV models to watch out for in the coming months. The Renault Mégane is ramping up volumes. Remember that his older sibling, the Zoe, is immensely popular in Germany (#1 in 2019 and 2020, #2 in 2021). The Megane has the potential to finish well in the top 10 by the end of this year, from its current 32nd spot.
The Chair born sees steadily increasing volumes and will climb higher than the 18th spot it took in Q2. It wouldn’t be great for the VW group to challenge the Volkswagen ID.3 in the German rankings, but it certainly has a less vanilla design and interior.
Ahead, the Volkswagen ID.Buzz should prove relatively popular in Germany once it ramps up (it remains at dealer monster volumes for now). Let’s keep an eye on it. MPVs and campervans have seen growth in Germany over the past two years, but generally still remain small segments, so the Buzz is unlikely to be a regular member of the top 20.
Group ranking
Here is an overview of the production group’s performance in the German market in the second quarter:
Compared to Q1, VW Group remains in first place. Tesla has (temporarily) fallen from 2nd to 7th. The Stellantis Group and the Hyundai Group have each moved up a spot to fill Tesla’s gap. Renault-Nissan Group jumped from 7th to 4th place, overtaking both Mercedes and BMW, who remained in place.
In terms of volume, the VW Group grew by 38%, Stellantis grew by 36% and Renault-Nissan by 16%. Hyundai Group and Mercedes Group were stable and BMW Group fell 18%, partly because the i3 just left the stadium. Tesla’s case has been discussed in detail above.
Outlook
The long-term progress of transport electrification remains on track in Germany, but there are storm clouds converging on the economic front, in the short term (at least). These make predictions for the auto market for the next year or so, everyone guessed.
The political and security crisis in Europe, as well as the trade war, has shocked the energy supply. Last Sunday, the head of the German trade unions (DGB), Yasmin Fahimi, warned that the resulting economic consequences for the country could be dire:
“Due to the gas bottlenecks, entire industries are in danger of permanent collapse: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry… Such a collapse would have huge consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany.” (Yasmin Fahimi, photo on sunday interview†
Meanwhile, German consumer confidence is at its worst lowest level since the start of the records in 1991 (GFK survey), again related to energy price inflation and food price increases.
the minister of economy, Robert Habeck said on Wednesday:“The dynamism now created by speculation and fossil energies alone puts us at risk of entering a recession.” (Machine translated).
For the supply-side automotive outlook, heavy manufacturing requires huge amounts of energy, so the German automotive industry is directly exposed to rising energy costs (as well as other supply chain inflation and shortages). The even more energy-intensive industries that Fahimi mentions (“aluminium, glass, chemical industry”) are all major suppliers to the German auto industry, and if large parts of them collapse, the auto industry won’t soon (or cheaply) alternatives.
Disruptions like this can make the previously headlined “chip shortage” seem like a walk in the park.
On the demand side, German consumer confidence (mentioned above) is apparently already at its lowest level in 31 years and could fall further if a recession hits. This affects the demand for all vehiclesincluding BEVs and PHEVs.
So with pressures on both car production costs and declining consumer demand, such a scenario would inevitably damage Germany’s most well-known industry. The largest industrial complex in Europe.
To point out that the relatively cheaper fuel costs of plugins can help them maintain: relative market share – even with the real prospect of permanent damage to large parts of the auto industry, the wider economy and the lives of ordinary people – sounds inappropriate.
We will have to monitor the situation. Until we have more clarity on the broader economic outlook in Germany (don’t hold your breath), I can’t say much about the plug-in transition over the rest of the year.
What do you think of the near-term outlook for the German auto industry (and the manufacturing economy in general)? Head over to the comments below to share your insights.
Do you appreciate the originality of CleanTechnica and the coverage of cleantech? Consider becoming one CleanTechnica member, supporter, technician or ambassador — or a patron on Patreon†
