The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which stretches 760 miles through the Baltic Sea between western Russia and northeastern Germany, has been supplying Europe with gas for more than a decade. It can send 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year – more than ten percent of the EU’s typical annual demand.
As of Monday, however, gas flows have fallen to zero. The reason is routine: ten days of pipe maintenance every year. But given the context, ministers and traders are gripped by a growing concern: Will it ever be turned on again?
As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its fifth month, the Kremlin huge gas reserves are increasingly armed, stifle volumes to Europe in retaliation for sanctions. Once considered strange, the prospect of a complete shutdown of Nord Stream 1 is now being taken seriously.
“The moment of truth has arrived for Europe’s energy security,” says Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at the think tank Bruegel in Belgium. “Whether Russia will resume gas exports to Germany after Nord Stream’s maintenance period will determine the energy, economic and political future of the continent.”
How likely is it that Russia will stop deliveries and how prepared is Europe?
“A complete shutdown of Russian gas flows would indeed exert considerable pressure on the German and the overall European economy, with consequences in terms of political solidarity in all EU countries,” said Mr Tagliapietra. “Europe should do more to prepare for this scenario, which is now more likely than ever.”
In recent decades, the continent has become addicted to cheap Russian gas, accounting for about 40 percent of Europe’s supply in the run-up to the war. It now struggles to find other sources as politicians flinch at the leverage — and the money — that such reliance hands the Kremlin over. Unfortunately, other options are limited: gas is scarce worldwide and prices are rising to record levels.
Europe wants to have its gas depots full before the winter, but has so far only reached 60%, well below its 80% target. Attempts are thwarted by Russia cuts off buyers including Denmark, Poland and Bulgaria in recent weeks, after they refused to meet demands to pay in rubles. Gazprom, the Russian state gas giant, cut power to Italy by a third on Monday. In the weeks leading up to the maintenance shutdown, it had already reduced power through Nord Stream by 1 to 40 percent of normal volumes. It blamed sanctions on the lack of vital equipment, which Canada has now said it will provide.