LONDON — Four are women. Six have recent ancestry from far beyond Europe: India, Iraq, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Of the three white men, one is married to a Chinese woman, while another has a French passport.
On paper, the nearly dozen candidates vying to replace Boris Johnson as leader and prime minister of the Conservative Party are a kaleidoscopic tribute to Britain’s rich diversity. In terms of policy proposals, however, the mosaic they create is resolutely monochromatic.
Almost all candidates pledge to cut taxes in one way or another to avoid the blow of a rising cost of living crisis† Most favor legislation that ignores an agreement with the European Union on trade in Northern Ireland. Many would continue to place illegal migrants on planes to Rwanda†
The degree of continuity and uniformity is particularly striking, as the candidates compete to replace a prime minister who has been criticized for swinging wildly from crisis to crisis while leading a government that is likely to slide in the face of serious economic crisis. stress and increasing tensions with Brussels. Several had been in the cabinet that raised the taxes they now want to cut.
“There’s just a bizarre disconnect from reality with all of them,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at Kings College London. “They’re just in this fantasy land talking about tax cuts.”
What they should be talking about, Professor Portes said, is how Britain is going to avert a full-blown crisis in its schools and hospitals in just a few months, while rising inflation and budget cuts will hit teachers and nurses, causing some to quit their jobs. education. strike jobs and others. Tax cuts won’t solve the cost of living pressures, he said, but they will fuel inflation and drain Britain’s already shaky public finances.
To some extent, the unfettered nature of the debate is a result of the size of the field, which causes many people to jockey to break through. That will soon change under new election rules passed Monday night by an influential committee of backbenchers in the Conservative Party, which oversees the leadership contest.
Under the rules, Conservative Party lawmakers will narrow the list of contenders in successive rounds of voting, starting Wednesday, with the support of 20 lawmakers needed to participate in that first contest, and ending next week with a shortlist of two. . One candidate will emerge victorious from a vote of members of the Conservative Party on September 5, succeeding Mr Johnson as Prime Minister. In theory, a two-person race will sharpen the debate and bring more difficult issues to the surface.
But the uniformly right-wing nature of the candidates’ proposals also reflects the Conservative Party electorate. The party’s center of gravity has tilted to the right during the bitter struggle over Brexit. Mr Johnson purged more centrist lawmakers, such as former Secretary of State Rory Stewart.
The party’s regular membership, which is largely made up of activists, is also more right-wing than average voters (according to the party, there were 160,000 eligible members in the last leadership election in 2019). Its members may have swung even more to the right in recent months as the party lost popularity under scandal-battered Mr. Johnson, and less committed members drifted away.
Still, the multi-stage nature of the contest could, according to some analysts, be a trap for tax-cutting evangelists. While most Tory MPs are attracted to lower taxes, party members were probably less positive, as they are generally older and more experienced in government-funded services.
For them, tax cuts funded by health care cuts or other public programs may not be attractive. Some candidates emphasize tax cuts in the first phase of the competition to differentiate themselves from the early frontrunners, Rishi Sunakwhose resignation as Treasury Secretary last week helped set in motion the events that toppled Mr Johnson.
Mr. Sunak, presenting himself as a tax hawk, stated in his: introductory campaign video that his rivals tell “comforting fairy tales”.
Robert Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, agreed that “there is a danger that some of these contenders will make promises to get through the first round that may continue to haunt them.”
A notable aspect of the debate thus far has been the lack of discussion over Brexit, the issue that has divided the party and the country for nearly six years. The candidates generally unite around Mr Johnson’s plan to break a deal he struck with the European Union on trade rules for Northern Ireland† The move led Brussels to accuse Britain of violating international law and has sparked fears of a trade war.
One of the loudest proponents of the plan is: Liz Truss, the foreign minister, who is one of the main contenders for the leader and has sponsored legislation in parliament. Analysts said she did this in part to appeal to the party’s right wing.
There are growing indications that Brexit will put an extra burden on the British economy. But Britain’s sharp split from the European Union is now a matter of political orthodoxy. Expressing doubts, said Professor Ford, was “like making a case for atheism in St. Peter’s.”
Despite all the fuss over cookie cutter proposals, there was a refreshing diversity in the candidates’ social media pitches.
Critics cited Mr Sunak’s polished video as proof that he had long prepared to become a leader. His enemies circulated a less flattering clip of an interview he gave in 2001 in which he claimed to have friends from all social backgrounds, but corrected himself when he said this did not include working-class workers†
Penny Mordaunt, a former government minister who makes an energetic bid, had to edit her video to remove footage of British Paralympic athlete Jonnie Peacock asking not to be in the film, as well as convicted murderer Oscar Pistorius. The least known contender, Rehman Chishti, posted a video that appeared to have been shot outside by telephone, with wind noise in the background.
The laundry list of contenders makes this one of the party’s most difficult to predict leadership contests in years. Some expect the first major roster to see a single candidate from the right, who would face a heavily backed frontrunner like Mr. sunak.
Before the list was sifted, however, some said it was worth enjoying the diversity of faces, if not messages, on display.
“Perhaps the most remarkable fact is that people don’t see it as remarkable,” said Professor Ford. It showed, he said, “how far the party has come in a fairly short time.”