MPs predict this will lead to frenzied horse trading on Wednesday evening and Thursday ahead of the day’s second ballot.
Candidates who remain in the field will court rivals who have been forced to withdraw and seek their approval and hopefully the backing of MPs who had backed them.
The second round of voting will take place on Thursday 14 July, when the last-placed leadership candidate automatically drops out.
What happens now?
After Thursday’s second vote, there will be a three-day break before MPs have a chance to grill candidates about their policies on a “super Monday” of hustings.
Three series of hustings are scheduled for Monday, July 18 – one by the 1922 committee and open to all Tory MPs, one by the 92 group of senior Tory MPs and one by the anti-woke Common Sense group.
The next voting rounds are scheduled for Tuesday 19 July when one or two ballots can be held, depending on the number of candidates remaining.
A final voting day is scheduled for Wednesday 20 July.
Party bosses hope so by Thursday 21 July, two more candidates remain in the procedure.
The confrontation begins
Conservative Central Office officials then take over, organizing a series of hustings at the party’s regional bases across the country so members can grill up the two remaining contenders.
The hustings – which were held in places like Belfast, York, Darlington, Perth, Nottingham and Cardiff in 2019 – will allow thousands of voting members to question the latter two.
Tory members will be encouraged to vote by mail for their choice to become leader at the end of August.
The winner will be announced on Monday 5 September.
The new Conservative leader and Prime Minister have two days to prepare for their first meeting with Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer on Wednesday, September 7.