BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Saudi Arabia that President Biden will visit this week is a country that is actively being reformed by the whims and visions of one man: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
As the de facto ruler of the oil-rich monarchy, the 36-year-old prince has established himself as a reformer, easing some of the restrictions of ultra-conservative Islam by allowing women to drive and once banned from going to cinemas and concerts. stand.
But the prince’s rule was also defined by his institutionalization of violence — both to quell domestic dissidents and to pursue a more muscular foreign policy. Prince Mohammed moved beyond the old Saudi model of quietly cultivating influence with money-driven diplomacy, bombing Yemen, aggressively targeting prison activists and critics and, according to the Central Intelligence Agency, sent the hit group that killed Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
It was because of these human rights concerns that Mr Biden sworn during his election campaign to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” and refused to speak to Prince Mohammed once in office, in an attempt to punish him with isolation.
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine that hurt oil prices and Iran plans to expand its nuclear capabilitiesMister Biden suddenly needs Saudi Arabia’s help – and has to face the reality that the only way to get it is through Prince Mohammed, commonly known as MBS
“The simple fact that MBS has managed to maintain its position domestically makes it the necessary interlocutor if you want to talk to Saudi Arabia,” said Cinzia Bianco, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Regardless of the outcome of the trip, the image of Mr Biden meeting Prince Mohammed on his own turf will confirm the young king’s position at the helm of one of the most important countries in the Middle East and boost indicate his vision for the kingdom and his more powerful place in the world.
Mr Biden’s critics say that is dangerous, demonstrating that wealth and oil remain paramount in major power politics and the lie of Mr Biden’s vow to pursue foreign policies based on human rights, belie. How, they ask, will the United States discourage other autocrats from crushing their critics after overlooking the abuses of Prince Mohammed in hopes that he can lower gas prices?
Middle Eastern scholars point out that the United States has a long history of doing business with autocrats, including every Saudi king, and that involvement could influence their behavior more effectively than exile. Perhaps, they argue, a closer American relationship can cultivate the good and discourage the bad in the way Prince Mohammed wields his vast wealth, power and ambition.
Prince Mohammed seemed to come out of nowhere seven years ago when his aging father, King Salman, ascended the throne and began delegating power to his favorite son.
But Prince Mohammed showed that he wanted complete control and would do anything to get it, including sideline† lock up and drain the fortune of his rivals within the royal family.
As he consolidated his power, he made it clear that he had big plans for Saudi Arabia: to shake off the kingdom’s past as a sleepy oil monarchy ruled by a hyper-conservative interpretation of Islamwho quietly pursued his interests, usually by spending huge amounts of cash†
Instead, he wanted the kingdom to claim a position as a global player known not only for oil and Islam, but for a dynamic, diversified economy that produced its own weapons, invented new technologies and attracted tourists to swim along its beaches. and visit the city. historical places.
That vision remains a work in progress.
Social changes have happened much faster than most Saudis expected. After Prince Mohammed stripped the once-dreaded religious police to impose their version of moral austerity on people, women were given the right to drive, restrictions on their clothing were relaxed and a new government body was charged with building an entertainment industry organized concerts, pro wrestling events and monster truck rallies.
Prince Mohammed faces an uphill battle to diversify the Saudi economy away from its utter dependence on oil. But the high world prices resulting from the war in Ukraine have left him confused, allowing the kingdom’s huge sovereign wealth fund to expand its investments abroad, including a new pro golf circuit†
Critics of Prince Mohammed accuse him of using such investments to divert attention from human rights violations at home and abroad. Despite a ceasefire Having temporarily reduced the level of violence, the kingdom continues to get bogged down in its war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, which has fueled one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Political repression in Saudi Arabia has been extensive: activists, critics and clerics have been arrested, banned from traveling abroad and being prosecuted over charges that human rights groups say are often fabricated.
Attempts to suppress criticism have crossed the borders of the kingdom, particularly in the case of Mr Khashoggi, who killed and dismembered by a team of Saudi agents at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. A review by the Central Intelligence Agency concluded that: Prince Mohammed had approved the operation† The prince has denied any foreknowledge of the plot.
When Mr. Biden entered the White House, Khashoggi’s assassination was still looming, and Prince Mohammed had every reason to brace himself for a tempestuous relationship — not least because the prince had been very chummy with President Donald J. Trump and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and adviser.
Initially, Mr. Biden had little interest in the kingdom, as he wanted to reach a new agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program and accelerate the transition from fossil fuels, the Saudis’ main raw material.
Mr. Biden was also hostile to Prince Mohammed, refusing to distance himself from his “pariah” remark and refusing to speak to him, insisting that the president’s counterpart was the king.
The Saudis also had policy complaints.
They grinned when the United States insisted on negotiating with Iran, fearing it would bolster their regional nemesis. And they feared that historic US commitment to Saudi security had waned, especially because… the Houthis, powered by Iranaccelerated drone and missile strikes on Saudi cities and oil facilities.
It also hurt that Prince Mohammed seemed to be taking no credit for the social changes in the kingdom, nor for his own efforts to prevent regional conflict, including opening talks with the Iranians in Baghdad.
The sense of neglect grew after the invasion of Ukraine, as government officials hoped the kingdom would work together to isolate President Vladimir Putin from Russia and increase oil production to lower prices.
Dennis Ross, who has worked for a number of presidents and is a leading fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the message he heard from a string of Saudis on a recent visit to the kingdom was: “When the US wants something from us, they don’t hesitate to pick up the phone and expect us to respond, but if we have a problem, we call and no one answers.”
In an interview with The Atlantic in April, when asked if Mr Biden misunderstood him, Prince Mohammed replied, “I just don’t care.”
He said neglecting Saudi Arabia would be bad for Mr Biden and could be a blessing for China, the kingdom has built ties†
Recently, relations between the White House and Saudi Arabia were so tense that analysts described them with romantic metaphors.
Mr Ross likened the Saudis’ feelings to those of a “confused lover” who wonders, “Why are you treating us like this?”
“The relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia, if it were a marriage, would be in dire need of guidance,” said Brian Katulis, vice president of policy at the Middle East Institute.
In an opinion article in The Washington Post about his trip to Saudi Arabia, Mr Biden did not mention Prince Mohammed by name (but Mr Khashoggi did) and said his goal was to talk to Arab leaders about energy, regional security and Iran, including from Saudi Arabia.
For their part, the Saudis announced that Mr Biden and Prince Mohammed would have “official talks”. During them, Biden is likely to find an assertive leader who knows he has something the United States needs and wants to get something in return.
This could be progress towards a more formal security guarantee or cooperation in areas outside of oil, said Yasmine Farouk, a nonresident scholar with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“The Saudis want to be treated like a US partner, and today US partners are talking with the US not just about security and oil, but also technology, climate and energy,” she said.
Even if the visit goes well, such a collaboration takes time to develop. But for Prince Mohammed, she said, getting Mr Biden to Saudi Arabia alone was “a triumph.”