LONDON — Put on a hat. Apply sunscreen and drink plenty of water.
That was the advice in Britain as the forecast for extreme summer heat rose to potentially record-breaking highs this week.
Meteorologists are looking cautiously at the coming days and are bracing for a weekend that could come dangerously close to temperatures never before experienced in a place where umbrellas are used more as shelter from drizzle than shade from the blazing sun.
The highest officially registered temperature in Britain on July 25, 2019, it was 38.7 degrees Celsius (101.6 Fahrenheit), and the prospect of that ceiling being breached looked so bleak that the Royal Meteorological Society recently took a chance on the worst-case scenario: 40 C in the UK?”
Temperatures in the UK have never reached 40°C since the start of measurements, the organization said this month† (That’s 104 Fahrenheit.) “But in late June 2022, weather forecast models first started showing that it was possible in mid-July.”
Britain’s national weather service, known as the Met Office, said on Wednesday that while some computer models predicted temperatures could reach the 40 degrees Celsius benchmark, more likely scenarios showed temperatures slightly lower than that, but still. extremely hot.
The Met Office has issued an orange warning on the approach of extreme heat for much of England and parts of Wales. “Exceptionally” high temperatures are expected between Sunday and Tuesday, before turning cooler — or not quite as hot — weather for the rest of the week, the forecast says.
“We only do that when temperatures get extreme, generally low to the mid-30s,” said Alex Deakin, a meteorologist with the Met Office.
From Sunday, the prospect of a new record loomed. “We could easily get close to that, most likely on Monday,” said Mr. Deakin in a… question-and-answer session on Twitter on Tuesday, as temperatures in London soared to a warmer, but not so scorching 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit).
The heat will peak on Monday and Tuesdaywith temperatures that could exceed 35 degrees Celsius (95 Fahrenheit) in the Southeast but will fall more widely around 32 degrees Celsius (89.6 Fahrenheit), forecasts say.
In London, hand-operated, battery-operated fans were prominent in shops this week. The major activated emergency protocols to help the homeless find a place to keep cool. The Met Office warned there may be interruptions to services including water, electricity and travel, and related illnesses such as heat exhaustion. The National Health Service has issued an opinion with tips on how to deal with it.
The Drapers Arms, a pub in north London, said it would not open on Monday and possibly other days because the forecast was unacceptable. Like other historic buildings and many homes in Britain, the pub is not air conditioned.
“It’s getting too hot in the kitchen,” said Melanie Hunt, assistant manager. “They cannot work under those conditions. It’s for the staff, especially the kitchen, but also the front of the house.”
“We have fans, but I don’t think they do too much unless you’re right in front of it.”
July has already been warm in parts of Britain. Summer days in southern England usually fall in the mid-30s, although the mid to high 30s is becoming more common depending on the region.
Sunday was the hottest day so far this year in Scotland, which reached 29.3 Celsius (84.7 Fahrenheit), and in Northern Ireland, which reached 24.3 Celsius (75.7 Fahrenheit), Mr Deakin said in an interview on Thursday.
“We’re getting huge swings,” he said.
Last summer, when temperatures hovered around 30 degrees, the Met Office gave its first-ever extreme heat warning, and it warned that more were to come. “While warm weather can often be seen as ‘good news’ and enjoyed by many, it can have serious consequences,” the Met Office said at the time:† “Research shows that, as a result of climate change, we are now much more likely to experience extended periods of warm weather here in the UK”
“This is not just a typical hot period in July,” said Mr. Deakin during his online presentation this week, answering questions from Twitter users about vacation plans, when to expect rain (possibly the last weeks of July), and whether businesses or schools should be closed (it’s up to them, Mr. Deakin).
Despite the invigorating expectations, Britain may not be as badly off as some countries.
This week, temperature forecasts in dozens of cities were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit in the east and south of China† Italy is in the grip of a drought, exacerbated by high temperatures, which has led to water rationing. The scorching heat reflects a global trend of increasingly frequent episodes of extreme weather driven by climate change.
“The highest temperatures experienced in the UK usually occur when our weather is influenced by air masses from continental Europe or North Africa – such as over the weekend,” Dr. Mark McCarthy, head of the Met Office National Climate Information Center, said in a statement.
On Mr Deakin’s Twitter chat, a man said he was concerned about the heat combined with Britain’s high humidity, a combination he said will “cook us”.
“It’s a different kind of heat,” agrees Mr Deakin, referring to what it feels like in warmer climates such as Dubai, where exceed temperatures 38 Celsius (100 Fahrenheit) regular this week. “That dry heat you get in the desert is easier.”
“The more moisture there is in the atmosphere, so the more humid it is, the harder it is for the body to sweat,” he explained, warning listeners to wear a hat, apply sunscreen, and drink plenty of water.