A Italian government crisiswhich was once so common as to be almost non-event has exposed the fragility of a Europe grappling with rising energy prices, a plummeting currency, faltering leadership and a war in Ukraine, where time seems to favor Russia’s autocratic resolve towards of democratic insecurity in the West.
That uncertainty engulfed Italy this week when Prime Minister Mario Draghi, a symbol of European determination in the face of Russian aggression, resigned in response to a populist uprising in his national unity government — only to be asked to wait at least until next time. week to continue. One of the issues that split Mr Draghi’s coalition is the cost of a proposed waste incinerator in Rome, not the sort of thing Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin should be concerned about.
“Yesterday they toasted in Moscow because Mario Draghi’s head was served to Putin on a silver platter,” said Luigi di Maio, Italy’s foreign minister. “Autocracies toast and democracies are weaker.”
Mr Draghi, whose resignation was rejected by Italian President Sergio Mattarella, may remain in office. Democracies, being flexible, often surprise autocrats because they count on their flaws. Yet a string of center-right and far-right Italian politicians sympathetic to Putin are waiting in the wings. Early elections, possibly, if not likely, could bring one of them to power.
Europe is being tested, not only in its united front with Russia, but also in the resilience of its democracies. Nationalist forces, often skeptical of the European Union and drawn to Russia, have been kept at bay, but not tamed, in the major countries.
As Mr Putin throttles the gas supplies that cover a third of the continent’s gas needs, a winter of discontent looms. Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, the leaders of France and Germany, sometimes seem adrift as they face the painful dilemma of saving Ukraine without provoking nuclear war with Russia.
“Time is the poison of the West and Mr Putin’s ally,” said a European diplomat, who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak publicly. “Yet we must prevail in this test of will.”
The test for the West will be acute between now and the end of the year. The euro, the shared currency of 19 European Union countries, has already fallen 11 percent against the dollar this year, reaching parity with the US dollar — a one-to-one exchange rate — for the first time in two decades this week. . Inflation continues to rise. Shortages of some products and the wildfires that accompany a heat wave, even in parts of northern France that have never been hit before, have aroused a European sense of doom.
For many Europeans, the euro’s slide towards parity is a striking symbol of how the war in Ukraine poses economic problems for Europe that are far more extreme than for the United States. President Biden’s determination to support Ukraine militarily, rather than pursue a diplomatic outcome, may be outraged as winter approaches.
Mr Putin’s gas pressure has already led the German government to warn of an imminent recession. Businesses and households are preparing for a winter of gas rationing as homeowners, schools and cities have begun to lower thermostats, cut back on air conditioning and dim street lights. There are murmurs about the American readiness to wage the war on Germany’s eastern flank to the last Ukrainian.
Italy wants to accelerate Russia’s energy independence, including by moving to Algeria for new gas supplies, while ramping up renewables and burning more coal to keep homes lit and businesses running.
France, which is less vulnerable due to its large nuclear power industry, is pushing for an “energy austerity plan” that Macron called necessary in a televised interview this week. “This war will last, but France will always be able to help Ukraine,” the French president said.
That was some distance from his statement to the Ukrainian leadership in Kiev last month that “Europe is on your side and will remain so for as long as it takes to achieve victory.”
The French leader’s alternating statements – insisting on the need not to “humiliate” Russia and say “we are not here to fight Russia” while swearing to make sure Ukraine “wins” – have caused some chagrin led in Ukraine and Eastern Europe.
Nowhere is Europe’s dilemma more acutely felt than in Germany, a nation deeply averse to war, uncomfortably dependent on Mr Putin for energy, and torn between moral outrage over Russian massacres of civilians and deadly fear of unleashing World War III.
In a much-commented essay in May applauding the prudence of Mr. Scholz, Jurgen Habermas, the prominent German philosopher, wrote: “The West, which, with the drastic sanctions it imposed early on, has already left no doubt about its in reality participation in this conflict, therefore, must carefully consider any additional degree of military support to determine whether it could exceed the undetermined limit of formal participation in the war — undetermined as it depends on Putin’s own definition.”
But the caution of Mr Scholz, evident in the slowness and shabbiness of the German arms supply to Ukraine, can look like weakness. As the Russian attack continues into winter, even with much loss of Russian lives, Europe’s sense of powerlessness, accompanied by impoverishment, may increase.
The approaching midterm elections in the United States have heightened uncertainty across the continent, with questions in European capitals about how much power Mr Biden will have and how much determination he will be able to muster to confront Russia after November. The resignation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine in Europe, could be a blow to the most uncompromising wing of the West’s fight against Russia.
Nathalie Tocci, the director of the Institute of International Affairs in Rome, said that despite the crisis in her country, she saw no imminent weakening of Western resolve. “The levels of Russian violence are so obscene that it is impossible to reduce Western support or roll back sanctions,” she said.
That could change, however, “if a cold and expensive winter in Europe, combined with a lull in war, made the sirens of peace irresistible.”
One measure of Europe’s changing politics is the unusual importance assumed by Mr Draghi, a former president of the European Central Bank. Italy was the first major Western country to publicly support Ukraine’s eventual membership in the European Union. By leading Italy away from an ambiguous relationship with Putin’s Russia, he seemed more comfortable with a clear stance against Moscow than Macron or Scholz.
“Geopolitics Italy will lose much of its power,” said Lucio Caracciolo, the editor of Limes, an Italian magazine focused on geopolitics, referring to the possibility of Mr Draghi’s government falling. “Draghi was renowned and Draghi was Italy. If he falls, Italy falls too.”
Mr Putin recently stated: “I want to say and emphasize that we have many supporters, including in the United States and Europe, and even more on other continents and in other countries. And their numbers will grow, there is no doubt about it.”
Mr Draghi has held the line and confused Mr Putin’s predictions. He has strengthened Italy with something it has often lacked: predictability. That can go when he goes; and Italian unpredictability would be a concern in an already troubled Europe.
Reporting contributed by: Jason Horowitz and Gaia Pianigianic from Rome, and Liz alderman and Aurelien Breeden from Paris.