Tired then, children will never get a place at the secondary school of their first choice, education experts fear.
Families will hear on Wednesday whether their children have secured a place at their preferred school.
A record number have applied for places, as a peak in the birth rate 11 years ago means there are 640,000 children looking to start seventh year in September.
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Center for Education and Employment Research, said the success rate could fall below 80 per cent for the first time.
The percentage of students who end up in their first choice dropped from 85.2 percent in 2014 to 83.3 percent last year, after a historic low of 80.9 percent in 2019.
A record number have applied for places as a peak in the birth rate 11 years ago means there are as many as 640,000 children looking to start year seven (file image)
General view of Castle View School in Essex. Education experts fear that fewer than four in five students will receive their first choice of school in September
Professor Smithers told The Telegraph that the increased demand had put additional pressure on the places.
“The competition for places will be at its highest ever, with the success rate falling below 80 percent for the first time if more first-choice places are not awarded.”
Students should be prepared for disappointment, education leaders suggested, as numbers plummet.
Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said plans are in place to prevent schools from over-enrolling.
He added that the pressure would be worse for schools with good or excellent Ofsted ratings.
Professor Smithers said increased demand had put additional pressure on school places
Kensington and Chelsea, Lewisham and Hammersmith and Fulham saw the lowest first-choice bid rates last year, with London’s boroughs fluctuating between 60.5 per cent and 62.1 per cent.
Professor Smithers said this could be due to cross-border movement and the fact that parents could make six choices for their child instead of the usual three.
The highest acceptance rates are found in central Bedfordshire, Rutland and the East Riding of Yorkshire, where up to 98 per cent are successful in their applications.
School leaders across the country have said they have seen a rapidly increasing demand for places in their schools.
A school in Newham has reduced its catchment area to 1.5 miles after 435 applications for 270 places.
Simon Elliot, who runs Forest Gate Community School, said people with “sharp elbows” get closer to good schools but may find they aren’t close enough.
Children living in the catchment area are more likely to attend school.
Parents in Bristol have launched a campaign after children were forced to travel up to four miles across the city on a bus to get to school.
Only 77 percent of children attended their first-choice school in the city last year.
Some have suggested that urban schools have capacity as people moved away from city centers during the pandemic, while rural schools are struggling.
Benedick Ashmore-Short, who runs the Park Academies Trust in Wiltshire, said his schools were already oversubscribed.
Simon Elliot, who runs Forest Gate Community School, said people with ‘sharp elbows’ get closer to good schools (file image)
And some school leaders are hesitant to expand the number of places, saying they want to protect the school culture.
Councils have met with officials across the country in an effort to resolve the demand crisis.
The Local Government Association said councils have struggled with the increase in the number of academies as they cannot tell them to increase the number of places available.
City councils have added 65,000 high school places since 2018, said Councilor Louise Gittins, chair of the Local Government Association’s board of directors for children and youth, though they cannot open new schools.
A spokesman for the Ministry of Education said: “Last year, 94.4 percent of high school applicants were offered one of their top three choices, while 83.3 percent were offered their first choice high school.
Pupils are also much more likely to be placed in a good school than they were 10 years ago, with 86 per cent of schools now rated as good or excellent, compared to 68 per cent in 2010.
“We have already created more than a million places in the past decade, the largest increase in at least 20 years. We have also announced nearly £530 million for both primary and secondary places needed for 2023, and £940 million for places needed for 2024 and 2025.”