Former Sinn Féin TD Violet-Anne Wynne has had talks with Ivana Bacik, discussing the issue of her joining the Labor Party.
Confirming the tentative nature of the informal chats last week, the now independent TD said of Labour: “I can only hope that, I think, with Ivana as the leader, they start to regain public confidence.”
She was referring to the Fine Gael-Labour government from 2011 to 2014 – one of the most difficult periods for a government in living memory.
The Social Democrats, now about to elect a new leader, have been formed directly as a result of those years of enforced austerity.
Coincidentally, I recently had a meeting with former Labor officials of that government, where the infamous ‘Tesco advertisement’ came up.
It was a mock newspaper advertisement aimed at Fine Gael, which at the time seemed to have an absolute majority.
There was much talk of a “Gilmore storm” before the 2011 election, with Labor at one point where Sinn Féin now ranks in the polls.
And Eamon Gilmore, Labor leader at the time, thought he was a Taoiseach.
But as the campaign got under way and the election approached, Labor began to lose support dramatically.
A Labor campaign was devised in the form of a supermarket ad in the newspaper. “Fine Gael, every little bit hurts,” it declared, emphasizing what Enda Kenny’s party had in store for voters.
It warned that Fine Gael planned to raise motor vehicle tax, dirt and VAT, impose an annual water charge, cut child benefit and even raise the tax on a bottle of wine by €1.
The advertisement was successful, as it boosted party support, and a Fine Gael-Labour coalition was quickly formed. The real damage to that coalition was done by Jean-Claude Trichet, then president of the European Central Bank.
He called Michael Noonan just as the then Chancellor of the Exchequer was on his way to the Dáil chamber to announce his proposals to allow institutional investors to share in the pain of the economic and banking collapse.
Trichet told Noonan, “If you do, a bomb will go off – and it won’t be here, but in Dublin.”
The question is, who would you take such a call: Michael Noonan or Holly Cairns, the early favorite to succeed Catherine Murphy and Róisín Shortall as leader of the Social Democrats?
Instinctively, SocDems and all supporters of parties who have never been in government will say Cairns.
However, the reality is that it is easy to resist and the SocDems are good at populist opposition.
But as Séamus Brennan, the late Fianna Fáil TD, once told the Greens, being in government means “senior hurling”. And the members of that stubborn Fine Gael-Labour government came away with blood on their knuckles.
It could even be argued that nothing in the opposition prepares you for a single day in government.
The reputation of the Social Democrats is built on highlighting issues that appeal to a new generation.
The party is second only to Sinn Féin in the housing crisis. Shortall has been strong on health and younger TDs are adept at “culture war” politics. There is no one more awake than the average SocDem TD, member or supporter.
And that is why the Social Democrats have been successful in carving out their own niche in the busy left-of-centre field. Both Murphy and Shortall are in danger as they stand aside for a new generation. But there is also a potential benefit.
All things considered, I think it’s a risky step worth taking for a 2 pc party in a Irish times/Ipsos poll last week.
That said, if people like Trichet ever make a call like this again, it might be better to have someone like Noonan on the end of the line.
The consensus among those former Labor officials was that when Gilmore entered government talks he should have brought a copy of the fake Tesco advert with him.
And he should have put it on the table and said, “Please, Enda, those are my red lines.” If he had, Labor probably wouldn’t have struggled for so long to regain the confidence that Wynne talks about.
But here’s the thing; For all her relative inexperience, Cairns would never have allowed a €1 tax on a bottle of wine. Because for all the harsh realities of government, there is no substitute for political nous.
Eventually Labor and the Social Democrats will merge – but not until after the next election, it seems.
Getting together before that election could help save a few seats that are likely to be lost next time to Sinn Féin cleanup candidates.
Bacik and Cairns – should she be able to handle a possible challenge from Cian O’Callaghan – will make an interesting duo in a political world where voters are turning to ecological/social democracy – namely Australia and Germany. Bacik feels like a break from the past and Cairns would be a pitch in the future.
It’s Mary Lou McDonald who might be watching this weekend.