SUGAR LAND, Texas – One of the deadliest school shootings in US history. The revival of a 1920s abortion ban. The worst episode of migrant death in recent history in the country. And a power grid, which went out during bitter cold, is now coming under pressure from the rising heat.
The relentless succession of death and hardship facing Texans over the past two months has soured them toward statehood, hurting Greg Abbott administration and making the race for governor arguably the most competitive since Democrats last held office. held in the 1990s.
Polls have shown a tightening, single-digit contest between Mr. Abbott, the two-year incumbent, and his ubiquitous Democratic challenger, former Congressman Beto O’Rourke. Mr O’Rourke is now raising more campaign money than Mr Abbott — $27.6 million to $24.9 million in the latest filing — in a race that will likely be one of the most expensive of 2022.
Suddenly, improbably, perhaps unwisely, Texas Democrats dare to think again – as they have done in many recent election years – that maybe this could be the year.
“It seems like the worst things happening in this country have their roots in Texas,” said Qa`, a Democratic state representative from north Austin. “We see a renewed fighting spirit.”
At the same time, the wind of national discontent is blowing hard in the other direction, against the Democrats. Texans, like many Americans, have felt the pressure of rising inflation and have a low opinion of President Biden. Unlike four years ago, when Mr. O’Rourke challenged and nearly won Senator Ted Cruz in a mid-term referendum on President Donald J. Trump that overturned Democrats, it is now the Republicans who are animated by animosity toward the White House and ready to make a profit in state games.
But in recent weeks there has been a noticeable shift in Texas, as shown by several public polls and some internal campaign polls, following the Uvalde school shooting that killed 19 children and two teachers and the US Supreme Court ruling on abortion. , Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, that re-enacted a 1925 law banning all abortions except when the woman’s life is in danger.
“Dobbs on the margins hurt Republicans in Texas. Uvalde on the ballpark has hurt Republicans in Texas. The grid has hurt Republicans in Texas,” said Mark P. Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University who helped conduct a recent poll. “Biden and inflation have been their saving graces.”
And the gun control issue has been one of the top concerns of another group Republicans have fought hard to get away from Democrats: Hispanic women.
A separate poll conducted by the University of Texas at Austin and published this month showed: 59 percent of respondents thought Texas was on the “wrong track” the highest number in more than a decade of asking that question. Another, from Quinnipiac University, found Mr. O’Rourke within 5 percentage points from the governor.
When the new polls showed that Mr. O’Rourke, Mr. Abbott held a conference call with reporters this month.
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“We’re right on track, where we want to be,” said Dave Carney, the governor’s campaign strategist, adding that their strategy still involved tying Mr. O’Rourke to Mr. Biden and reminding voters to the views of Mr O’Rourke. on gun control, police reform and the oil industry during his failed run in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries.
“He will relive the spectacular disaster of his presidency and all the things he has said,” Carney said. “Believe me, he loved to talk and it’s all on video and it’s all against what the values are and what the vast majority of Texans believe.”
That approach was part of Mr. Abbott, particularly on the issue of weapons. In one of the first attacks on Mr. O’Rourke, Abbott’s campaign emphasized his vow during the presidential campaign to take away AR-15 rifles.
The moment, which infuriated many Republicans, simultaneously seemed to energize Democrats who, like Mr. Talarico, were eager to see an aggressive flag bearer across the state. “He showed us all who believe in democracy in the broadest sense of the word how to respond,” said Mr. Talarico.
In Uvalde, a majority Spanish city where hunting is a common pastime, the political mood has changed since the Robb Elementary massacre. Many now support stricter gun laws. “Everyone here has guns,” said Vincent Salazar, who lost a granddaughter in the shooting. “But this is different. Nobody needs AR-15s. We must ban them.”
Bee a march organized by the families of the victims this month, Mr. O’Rourke addressed the meeting and appeared to be greeted warmly. “Vote them out!” some in the crowd chanted.
Speaking to reporters, Mr. Carney admitted that the school shooting and the state’s new restrictions on abortion had helped Mr. O’Rourke. “Honestly, the benefit of all of this was for Beto in online fundraising,” he said.
Mr. O’Rourke has eclipsed Mr. Abbott through small-dollar donations, raising more than three times the cash in donations of $200 or less, according to an analysis by the Texas Tribune. And he’s also started taking big checks: $1 million from billionaire George Soros, the perennial backer of Democratic candidates, and $2 million from Simone and Tench Coxe, recent transplants to Austin from California.
Yet Mr. Abbott, a prolific fundraiser, more campaign money in the bank – nearly $46 million compared to about $24 million for Mr. O’Rourke – and the ability to quickly tap into a large network of wealthy donors. mr. Abbott received 62 donations of $100,000 or more during the last fundraising period, compared to six for Mr. O’Rourke.
Among the governor’s largest donors were energy managers such as Javaid Anwar of Midland Energy (about $1.4 million), Kelcy Warren of Energy Transfer ($1 million) and Gary Martin of Falcon Bay Energy, who provided Mr. Abbott with $ 680,000 in air travel .
The campaign of Mr. Abbott has already set aside $20 million in fall advertising spending, of which Mr. Carney said it would be aggressively targeting governor’s voters to keep them engaged and take them out.
“We’re limiting ourselves to less than 10 percent of voters,” he said. He also predicted that Mr. Abbott would win among Hispanic Texans.
Adryana Aldeen, a public policy adviser who has worked with the Texas Republican Party in the past, said both candidates have connections to the Hispanic community, noting Mr. O’Rourke’s fluency in Spanish and his upbringing in El Paso, a majority of the Spanish population and The wife of Mr. Abbott, whose family emigrated from Mexico.
“It’s very clear that Latinos are very conservative in their values,” she said, but with room for moderation. On weapons, she quoted her own opinion that the state… unauthorized carry lawadopted in 2021 and signed by Mr Abbott, may have gone too far towards lifting restrictions.
“Personally I have a gun. I have a license to carry that weapon. I had a background check. I really believe it’s okay to have those things,” she said. “I know many of my fellow Republicans disagree.”
Taking advantage of what his advisers see as momentum, Mr. O’Rourke has returned to the road, his political comfort zone, with a 49-day drive to Texas events.
“If you look at the period from April to July, the race has changed by 5 points,” said Chris Evans, a campaign spokesman. “People aren’t happy with the direction the state is going and we’re going right up to them and offering them the alternative.”
But it’s not clear how long the effect of recent events on the Texas electorate will last.
Rising consumer costs were on the mind of Sophia Graves, 50, on a recent afternoon at the First Colony Mall in Sugar Land, a burgeoning community outside of Houston that is among the most diverse in the country.
“Everything is expensive right now,” said Ms. Graves, a real estate agent from nearby Missouri City, who was shopping with her 17-year-old daughter. “We need help.”
But she said she still planned to vote for Mr. O’Rourke because “he’s just refreshing” and agreed with him on policies such as abortion and the need for tougher gun regulations. She said recent events had made her optimistic that he could win. “I have more hope,” she said. “It’s time for a change.”
Inflation was also Ahmad Sadozai’s main concern, threatening the middle-class lifestyle, which he said drew so many immigrants to the United States. “I love this country,” said Mr. Sadozai, who came to Texas as a refugee from Afghanistan nearly 20 years ago and has two jobs, as a school bus driver and a health care assistant. He had no preferred candidate for governor.
“They need to raise salaries,” he said, pausing to take a bite of a banana sundae in a rolled wafer. “Besides that, I think it’s great. Look what I eat!” he said with a smile.
Edgar Sandoval reporting contributed.