Chad 2024 elections: what you need to know

Why are these elections important?

Chad's election on May 6 appears to offer voters a choice. But it is a mastermind, analysts say, to achieve one result: to cement the rule of incumbent Mahamat Idriss Déby, who wants to transform himself from military leader to civilian president.

Mr Déby seized power three years ago after his father, Idriss Déby, who ruled Chad with an iron fist for 30 years, was killed – apparently on the battlefield, fighting rebels who want to overthrow his government. His son's succession as president was a clear violation of the country's constitution.

Chad is a landlocked, arid country of 18 million people in Central Africa. Despite its wealth of natural resources, it is one of the poorest countries in the world.

Nevertheless, the country offers shelter to hundreds of thousands of refugees from the war in neighboring Sudan.

Chad is also part of a of African countries that have experienced coups over the past four years, from coast to coast.

And it is the first of the junta-led countries to hold elections. The Malian government continues to postpone the promised vote. Last year, Burkina Faso's military president Ibrahim Traore indefinitely postponed an election scheduled for July 2024, saying it was “not a priority.” There is no end in sight for Guinea's so-called transitional government.

Chad has built a reputation as a reliable security partner for Western countries in their fight against Islamist militants, at a time when other countries are pushing out Western allies. It is hosting hundreds of French troops after they were expelled from neighboring Niger some American ones.

But some American troops are to leave after a letter from Chad's air chief ordered them to halt operations at an air base in the capital N'Djamena, U.S. officials said recently — at least until after the election.

Who's running?

Mr Déby – known by his nickname Kaka – was said to be an interim leader and pledged not to run, but he is at the top of the ballot. He is a four-star general who trained in Chad and France and has three wives and many children.

His prime minister, Succès Masra, is also a candidate. Mr Masra was the country's best-known opposition leader and lived in exile until last year. But then he returned, struck a deal with Mr Déby and has led his government since January. Mr Masra used to have significant support, but now many Chadians see him as a sellout.

Eight other candidates have been approved to run – but two key opposition leaders, Nassour Ibrahim Neguy Koursami and Rakhis Ahmat Saleh, were barred after the country's Constitutional Council said there were “irregularities”, including allegations of falsification by Mr Koursami. But most observers said they believed the council's findings were politically motivated.

The other name missing from the ballot paper is that of Yaya Dillo, the main opposition leader. In February, he was shot dead by security forces at his party headquarters – A murder, his party said. Previously, dozens of protesters were killed during pro-democracy rallies.

When will we hear the results?

About a week after the election. If there is a second round, it will take place on June 22.

Who is going to win?

There have never been free and fair elections in Chad, and it looks like they will continue in that tradition. Analysts say the only path to Mr Deby's loss of power is a coup.

But even if he wins the election, don't make the mistake of thinking he's popular, said Lynda Iroulo, an international relations scholar at Georgetown University in Qatar. Despite the notable lack of elections, she says the juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are significantly more popular than those in Chad.

“Most of them have had some degree of mass support,” she said, largely because they are trying to “cut off French influence in their country.”

In every country, thousands of people have gathered in support of the juntas. Not so in Chad. Nevertheless, Mr Déby has ensured that no candidate with enough support to defeat him will run.

“I haven't seen any change happen in my entire life,” says Julia Bealoum, a student in N'Djamena. “I think everything will remain as before.”

What are the geopolitical factors?

Chad has not faced the same wave of international condemnation that followed coups And democratic decline in other African countries. The African Union did not suspend Chad's membership after the coup, or when Mr Déby went back on his promise not to run. When Mr Dillo – the opposition leader – was assassinated, the United States and France said nothing.

President Emmanuel Macron of France even sent his special envoy to N'Djamena ten days after Mr Dillo's death to express his “admiration” for the electoral process.

It was a far cry from the condemnation faced by the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – or the subsequent failure of their juntas to hold elections.

Many voters in Chad believe that Western countries are in control and are highly critical of France, despite the close relationship between the two governments.

“I don't think it is possible for a country like Chad to organize transparent elections because we are ruled by Western powers, especially France, who only look after their own interests,” said Richard Djitaingar, the owner of a small phone shop. in N'Djamena.