Diplomatic issues
It may be tempting for Turkey’s President Erdogan to start a war with Greece to distract attention from domestic politics and inflation, but even if Turkey wins militarily, it will further destabilize the economy. Will be more isolated from other NATO member countries
opinion: The last thing Europe needs right now is war. Or, more precisely, another war. Inflation surged and the euro crisis resumed in the fifth month of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
To make matters worse, yet another war is imminent. It would even be a conflict between the two NATO member states. Of course, I mention Greece and Turkey. (Or Türkiye because the country wants to be called now.)
If there is a traditional arch hostility in international affairs, it is between Athens and Ankara. Their conflict dates back more than half a thousand years and is older than the two modern states of Greece and Turkey.
The history of potted plants is as follows. In the 15th century, the Ottoman and Byzantine Empires struggled for control in the Eastern Mediterranean. After the Ottoman Empire captured the fall of Constantinople in 1453, the Greeks were forced into a minority position in the Ottoman Empire for centuries.
Hostility continued even after Greece became independent and recognized by the Ottoman Empire in 1830. 100 years ago, the Greco-Turkish War of 1919-1922 ended with the defeat of Greece and the ethnic cleansing and resettlement on both sides.
After this turbulent history, it was a small miracle that the two countries formed a friendly relationship and joined NATO in 1952.
But since the mid-1950s, old hostility has returned. First, who controls Cyprus, and increasingly over access to the region’s natural resources. All this has always been done in the context of many years of cultural competition.
The Greek-Turkish conflict is very old and is part of most of European folklore. Still, rhetoric escalation over the past few weeks is extreme, even by its usual standards. The timing was also surprising.
When Putin launched an attack on Ukraine, there was a short moment when both Athens and Ankara seemed to fill the hatchery. Instead of the usual quarrel, they may once stand together to confront Russia’s invasion as a NATO member.
However, after that, Greek Prime Minister Kiriakos Mitsutakis made a speech in both houses of the US Parliament on May 17. This was a speech dominated by foreign policy issues, especially the importance of US military bases in Greece supplying Ukraine with weapons.
However, Mitsutakis did not stop there. Instead, he made a Greek claim to acquire an F-35 stealth fighter from the United States, and not allow Turkey to upgrade the F-16 jet with new missiles, radar, and electronics. ..
In his speech, Mitsutakis said: And he wants this to be taken into account when making defense procurement decisions regarding the Eastern Mediterranean. “
It didn’t take long for Ankara to reply. Its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, tweeted, “I warn Greece again to avoid regrettable dreams, remarks and actions and return to that feeling, as it did a century ago.”
Unless you are familiar with the history of conflict, the threat of war may not be obvious. “1st century ago” refers to the last rare earth war. The “Lead to Regret” line was a hint that Greece lost.
In other words, rather than approaching each other in the face of the Ukrainian War, Greece and Turkey are drifting further apart.
This is a nightmare scenario for NATO. It’s the opposite of what it wanted. The presence of Turkey and Greece on the same page would have contributed to the collective security of the alliance in the Mediterranean.
In the years prior to the Ukrainian War, Russia and China became more active in the Eastern Mediterranean with economic initiatives. To counter this, we needed to find a way for the new Turkey and Greece to live together. This may now seem unlikely.
How do Nato members position themselves in this conflict? Currently, the majority of NATO member countries support Greece. Or, more precisely, they are against Turkey.
Erdogan has been frustrating Western Europe for years. The role he played in the various refugee crises is questionable. His domestic economic policy is devastating. His relationship with Russia has long been ambiguous.
It is no wonder that NATO members are siding with Greece in this conflict. Anyway, the United States has traditionally been on the Greek side. Regardless of how other NATO members are positioned, the most important issue is how the President of Turkey will deal with this crisis.
It’s a difficult situation for Erdogan. Next year he will face the presidential election. His country’s economy is in turmoil and inflation is over 70 percent. Turkey’s price increases are directly related to Erdogan’s peculiar understanding of economics and his constant interference with Turkey’s central bank.
In such a situation, the president may be tempted to start a war with Greece and regain the respect of the people. War will provide a distraction from domestic politics and inflation.
In contrast, Greece has little to gain from war. Yes, Prime Minister Mitsutakis may also want a distraction from economic policy. Nevertheless, the Greek army is not comparable to the Turkish army and will almost certainly be defeated in the conflict with Turkey.
Overall, it’s hard to imagine a suitable winner in the new rare earth war. Turkey may win militarily, but it only destabilizes its economy and becomes more isolated from other NATO member states.
At this point, it seems unlikely that war will happen, as it will be a universal catastrophe. Again, that’s why many believed Putin would never invade Ukraine.