Donald J. Trump is crystal clear about his disdain for electric vehicles. The former president has falsely claimed that electric cars don't work, promised to overturn President Biden's policies that encourage the production and sale of electric cars, and has said he would impose a “100 percent tariff” on electric cars coming from Mexico be imported if he retakes the White House. .
'You're not going to be able to sell those cars' he said.
But analysts say that even if Mr. Trump is elected and ends federal policies supporting electric vehicles, by the time that happens the market may have reached a level where it would continue to grow without government help.
Last year, a record 1.2 million Americans purchased electric vehicles, accounting for 7.6 percent of new car sales and moving cars and trucks from the margins to the mainstream of the U.S. auto market. Analysts predict that this will rise to 10 percent this yearsay researchers could mark a turning point for rapid, widespread adoption of electric vehicles.
While a Trump presidency wouldn't put the brakes on the EV transition, it could throw enough sand in the gears to slow it down. And that could have significant implications for the fight to halt global warming.
President Biden put electric vehicles at the heart of his climate agenda as scientists say a rapid switch from gasoline-powered cars to electric versions is one of the most effective ways to slow carbon dioxide emissions that are dangerously warming the planet. Last year was the hottest year on record and scientists say the world is on track to warm even further, to the point where parts of the planet will be unlivable.
The Biden administration has implemented one of the most ambitious climate regulations in the country's history, an Environmental Protection Agency rule designed to ensure that more than 50 percent of new passenger cars sold in the United States are all-electric by 2032. The government has combined those regulations with tax breaks to encourage automakers to produce electric vehicles and motorists to buy them. And to help American automakers compete with cheap imports and give the domestic market a chance to develop, Mr. Biden has set a rate of 100 percent on electric vehicles made in China.
That's all at stake in November, Margo Oge, who led the EPA's transportation emissions program under three presidents and is the author of “Driving the Future,” said of the EV market. “If Trump is elected, we will absolutely not achieve Biden's goal,” she said.
Mr Trump has famously dismissed the overwhelming scientific evidence that the planet is warming due to the burning of oil, gas and coal as a “hoax”. He is heavily courting the fossil fuel industry's oil and gas industriesAt a recent private dinner, he told executives to donate $1 billion to his campaign so he could retake the White House and reverse Mr. Biden's climate policies.
A second Trump administration could hinder electric vehicles in several ways, by rolling back regulations that limit tailpipe pollution and changing Treasury Department rules that determine how many electric vehicles qualify for tax breaks.
If Republicans gain control of Congress, a Trump administration could also work with those lawmakers to repeal parts of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which provided at least $370 billion in clean energy tax credits, for the production of batteries and for the sale and production of electric vehicles.
But Mr. Trump may find that the auto industry and its suppliers are cool to his plans to thwart electric vehicles, Ms. Oge said.
It is likely that some major automakers, if not all, will continue to invest in making and marketing electric vehicles while motorists continue to buy them, Ms. Oge and other analysts said. Companies will continue to build EV charging stations, batteries and other parts of the supply chain, they said. And some parts of the electric car industry would most likely lobby to protect favorable policies.
For years, automakers have fought federal efforts to impose strict controls on tailpipe emissions that would force them to sell electric vehicles. But with the Biden administration imposing tough new restrictions on tailpipe pollution, and companies pouring billions into new processes to build electric vehicles, some automakers say a sharp U-turn in EV policy could harm their sector.
“The auto industry is in a very different place than it was in 2017,” said John Bozzella, president of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents 42 auto companies that produce nearly all new vehicles sold in the U.S.
When Mr. Trump was elected in 2016, electric vehicle sales were about 1 percent of the auto market, while today they are approaching 10 percent, Mr. Bozzella noted. “In 2017, there were a handful of factories making EV batteries in the US, and today there are dozens,” he said. “The market is different, the industrial base of the automotive industry is different and the world is different.”
Mr. Trump may conclude that some automakers don't want a turnaround. For example, Ford Motor has intervened on behalf of the EPA in a lawsuit by Republican attorneys general and oil companies to block the Biden administration's limits on tailpipe emissions.
William Clay Ford Jr., president of Ford Motor, said the company did not want the rules to change in the winds of politics. “Our time frame as a company, our planning time frame, is much longer than election cycles,” Mr. Ford said last month at an event hosted by the Detroit Free Press. “If we are tossed back and forth by politicians, it will be very difficult for us.”
Other automakers could simply ask Mr. Trump to delay implementation of the tailpipe regulation, perhaps extending compliance deadlines, rather than scrapping it entirely.
It is unclear whether a Republican-controlled Congress would repeal the Inflation Reduction Act's tax credits. While 20 Republican senators have introduced legislation that would roll back tax credits for EV manufacturers and for motorists who buy their cars, many of those manufacturing tax credits are flowing to companies in Republican-controlled states, including Georgia, South Carolina and Ohio. That could make some lawmakers reluctant to end the tax credits.
Hyundai Motor, for example, is spending nearly $8 billion on a factory near Savannah, Georgia, that will produce electric vehicles. Together with South Korean battery manufacturer SK On, Hyundai is investing another $5 billion in a battery factory northwest of Atlanta. The two facilities will employ 12,000 people.
Hyundai, which imports most of its electric vehicles from South Korea, has rushed to complete its factories in Georgia so it can sell U.S.-made cars that qualify for tax breaks under the IRA.
State and local governments in Georgia offered Hyundai about this $2 billion in tax breaks to build its factory near Savannah.
Hyundai decided to invest in Georgia before the Inflation Reduction Act took effect, said Garrison Douglas, a spokesman for Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. “The e-mobility space was growing in Georgia even before the federal government's intervention,” Douglas said in an email.
If Mr. Trump wins the November election and fails to get Congress to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, he could change Treasury regulations to sharply limit who is eligible could benefit from tax breaks intended to encourage the production and sale of electric cars. For example, the Treasury Department could tighten restrictions on cars containing graphite processed in China. All electric car batteries require graphite, and almost all of it comes from China. Trump could revoke an exemption the Biden administration created this month that makes cars containing Chinese graphite eligible for federal tax breaks.
“If Trump gets through in November, that's the obvious target for him,” Adam Panayi, director of Rho Motion, a battery research firm, told an audience of investors in New York last week.
Even that would likely only be a temporary setback for electric vehicle makers. Several companies plan to set up graphite processing in the United States, and others are working on a way to replace some of the graphite in a battery with silicon.
For car buyers, federal tax breaks have helped make electric cars more affordable and expanded the market for used electric vehicles. The credit of up to $4,000, which dealers can deduct from the purchase price and count as a down payment, means a used Chevy Bolt car can be purchased with payments not much higher than $200 per month, said Jesse Lore, owner of Green Wave. Electric Vehicles in North Hampton, NH, which only sells electric vehicles.
Mr. Lore said he did not think a Trump presidency would destroy electric car sales. “I wouldn't have been wise to start this business because of the tax benefit,” Mr. Lore said. “It's certainly a concern, but I don't think it will destroy the market. It will just slow it down a bit.”
The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021 also provided states with $7.5 billion to build fast-charging stations for electric vehicles. That could be repealed if Trump worked with Congress to change the law. All 50 states have applied for the money, which would be used to build fast chargers along major highways so motorists can charge during road trips. Ohio, which has received more than $34 million in federal grants to build EV chargers, was the first in the nation to break ground on a federally funded EV charging station.
But private investment and state funds, over which a Trump administration would have no control, have often outpaced the federal program.
Sara Rafalson, vice president at EVgo, a Los Angeles-based charging company that has built chargers in more than 35 states, said the company saw the biggest demand growth in Republican-led states like Texas and Florida.
Given the growth of electric vehicles and investment in Republican states, it's possible this dynamic could play out in surprising ways in a new Trump White House, says Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican strategist who founded an EV advocacy group , the EV Politics Project. .
“You have core EV supporters in the Republican world,” he said. “Even in Trumpland, there will be sober, quiet voices that will push back. And the nice thing about Trump is that he can always change. He is completely transactional.”