In recent weeks, a Russian blitz has claimed more than a dozen villages in northeastern Ukraine, near the country's second-largest city. This summer, Russia is likely to continue its offensive push in the east of the country.
Russia's ability to carry out these attacks is in some ways surprising. War is expensive. And Russia's economy is being held back by tough sanctions from some of the world's richest countries. Yet Moscow has managed to continue paying for its war machine.
How? US officials point to China.
China has promised not to send weapons to Russia. But it has supported Russia's economy by buying oil and expanding other forms of trade. Russia uses the revenue from that trade to manufacture weapons. According to US officials, it has also bought parts for these weapons from China: last year Russia got 90 percent of its microelectronic imports from China and used them for missiles, tanks and aircraft. Without Beijing's help, Moscow might still be able to continue its war, but in a weakened state.
Of course, Washington and its allies have also provided support to Ukraine, including actual weapons. From that perspective, the war looks more like part of the broader struggle between the US and China – which some of them are analysts call a new cold war – then a one-off conflict. “We're in for 30 to 40 years of superpower competition and confrontation,” said my colleague David Sanger, who covers national security and recently published the book “New Cold Wars.” Ukraine is just the current front.
Today's newsletter will explain what China can gain – and lose – by supporting Russia.
The Chinese Bet
Supporting Russia is risky. The US and Europe have warned they could impose sanctions on China if the country supports the war. But for China, the benefits of a Russian victory in Ukraine could outweigh the costs.
One of these benefits: The war has entangled the US and its allies in a conflict far away, squeeze out the US Army's ammunition supplies. It has made Russia, a major military power, more dependent on China. It was also instructive: China has ambitions to invade Taiwan, and it has been watching Russia's gamble to see the world's response — a response that has exposed the limits of America's reach. While Washington got its closest allies to punish Russia for the invasion, major democracies like Brazil and India continue to buy Russian oil.
“Countries around the world will not follow the US where they want to go, even if US officials consider a black-and-white issue like Ukraine,” my foreign policy colleague Edward Wong told me. “That has become much clearer since the war.”
Yet Chinese support for Russia could backfire – and in some ways already has. It angered European leaders criticized Beijing's involvement when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited France this month. Chinese interference has probably made it easier for the US to do that adopt stricter trade restrictions and other policies designed to hurt Beijing. The war united the US and its allies in a way not seen in decades. If Russia loses, China could be stuck with a weaker partner and disrupted relations with some of the world's largest economies.
To weigh the risks and benefits, China has tried to walk a fine line. It has boasted of a “no borders” partnership with Russia. But it also claims to be neutral in the war and has tried to maintain plausible deniability in its support for its partner.
it comes down to
Will China's efforts pay off? It depends on the outcome of the conflict.
If the US and its allies stopped supporting Ukraine and the country lost the war, China's largest partner would emerge as the winner. The West would no longer look as strong and united as it once was. Knowing this, China could become more aggressive in its territorial claims over Taiwan, the South China Sea and elsewhere.
But if the West stayed united and Ukraine won, the opposite would be true. Russia would be weakened and embarrassed. The US and its allies would have proven that they remained formidable. And China might reconsider whether it can afford to take aggressive action to expand its borders.
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