Many Tories currently have a hang-dog look. Whether it concerns supporters of Liz Truss or Rishi Sunakthey assume that the Conservative Party will be heading for certain defeat in an election in two years’ time.
There is much chatter in Tory circles about how divided parties never win elections. Miss Truss and Mr. Sunak would bite each other to pieces in a devastating ‘blue-on-blue’ internal war.
Meanwhile, many conservatives believe that the two leadership candidates are barely distinguishable in Sir .’s dullness Keir Starmerrecently described by Boris Johnson like ‘a pointless plastic bollard’ and ‘Captain Crasheroonie Snoozefest’.
In particular, Liz Truss has been called so wooden by some that she makes the Labor leader, previously celebrated for his ability to put us all to sleep, seem witty, original and lively.
Is there any basis for these Tory fears? Few. I admit neither Liz Truss nor Rishi Sunak would let them roll down the aisles of the Alhambra, but that isn’t usually considered a disqualification from a political leader.
As for the accusation that they “throw away the Tory brand” by disagreeing so vehemently in public, I think this is greatly exaggerated. Once the leadership contest is over, the disagreements will quickly fade and be quickly forgotten.
In addition, the participants are politically closer to each other than is commonly believed. Even on taxes, their main point of contention, separates them less now that Mr Sunak has embraced the cause of tax cuts by promising to cut VAT on utility bills for a year if he becomes prime minister.
No, the Tory pessimism is exaggerated. But there’s actually an even bigger reason for downcast conservatives to be quietly optimistic. I’m talking about Sir Keir Starmer.
Keir Starmer, leader of the British opposition Labor Party, looks ahead at the UEFA Women’s EURO 2022 semi-final football match between England and Sweden in Sheffield, Great Britain, 26 July 2022
In recent days, the Labor leader has been polishing his reputation as a man with an aversion to producing interesting ideas. We’ve also been reminded how deeply divided the Labor Party is – more so than the Tories, as Miss Truss and Mr Sunak throw their fireworks at each other.
Sir Keir’s two problems are linked. He is not a policy free zone just because he cannot decide and does not know what he believes. He is reluctant, or perhaps unable, to set out his stall, partly because his party cannot easily agree on important policies.
Watch his acclaimed speech in Liverpool on Monday. In the matter of duty, I have read every word. It was a lament about the low economic growth that this country has experienced over the past ten years. Liz Truss says much the same.
But while proposing a remedy – lower tax – Sir Keir made no suggestion whatsoever. Oh, that’s not quite right. He did come up with the idea of a ‘new industrial strategy board’ – a kind of superquango that would hold the government accountable. That will solve all our problems!
To be fair, he did list “five principles that will guide my government in increasing our economic contribution.” One would be ‘distinctly British’. Another was to “re-energize communities and spread economic power.” Who writes this nonsense?
Perhaps one day Sir Keir will come up with something more specific. But it tells us a lot that, more than two years since he became Labor leader, he is still producing low-grade political gunk.
Part of the reason, as I said, is that his party remains divided on important issues. Sir Keir may have seen mostly the left, made up of the likes of Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott, and John McDonnell, but he’s still ravaged by some pretty extreme characters.
Conservative leadership candidate Liz Truss attends a meeting as part of her campaign in Woodford Green, on the outskirts of London, UK 27 July 2022
Whenever he half-heartedly embraces what could be liberally described as policy, these people tend to kick him down the throat. Yesterday morning, the pragmatic shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, seemed to rule out nationalization of the track because of the cost, and was later seemingly backed by her boss.
But several senior colleagues disagreed. Shadow Transport Minister Louise Haigh insisted that the party “remained committed to public ownership of the railway”. Her comments were re-tweeted by deputy Labor leader Angela Rayner, who clearly agrees.
The combative Mrs Rayner, who has more than half an eye on Sir Keir Starmer’s work, happens to be in a relationship with Sam Tarry, a hard-left senior Labor MP.
Yesterday Mr Tarry appeared at a picket line at Euston station in London to show solidarity with the 40,000 RMT members who have shut down most of the UK’s rail network.
This was an act of defiance – outright rebellion, really – against Sir Keir, who had ordered his front benchers not to join striking railway workers on picket lines. The PvdA leader does not want to give the impression that his party supports the strike, although he is not against it in his trademark ambivalent way.
Last month, some 25 Labor MPs defied his instructions not to join picket lines, including four members of the front bench. Sir Keir failed to fire any of them.
Former British Chancellor of the Exchequer and candidate to become Conservative Party leader and Britain’s next Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, gestures as he delivers a speech at a campaign event in Newmarket on 27 July 2022
Last night he mustered up the courage to get rid of the mutinous Mr Tarry as shadow minister of transport. If he had not, that would have been a disgraceful weakness and would have been irrefutable proof that Sir Keir had lost control of his shaggy party.
Despite the resignation of its brutal shadow minister, Labor remains divided. After the chaotic past few days, we still don’t know whether it promotes the nationalization of rail (or water or energy) companies. We also don’t know if it supports the railway strikes.
I’m not a fan of Tony Blair, but compare his performance to Sir Keir Starmer’s. Between 1994 and his landslide victory in 1997, Blair expressed his authority over Labour, dumped left-wing policies and shifted the party to the right.
Blair was persuasive, decisive and charismatic. Starmer cannot convince parts of his party to support him. He is often indecisive and unable to formulate appealing policies. And he is certainly not charismatic.
My argument is not that the Labor leader will not lead his party to victory. If nothing else, the Tories would win again in 2024 and rule for another five years, they would have been in office for 19 years. That may be too much for the electorate to bear.
But there is no denying that Sir Keir is a flawed leader who leads a party that is not united around him. He has failed to come up with convincing policies and his party continues to focus on the left.
Labor is no doubt happy to see the back of Boris Johnson, who considers it the most formidable Tory leader for a generation. Like Margaret Thatcher, he appealed to large sections of the working class.
But if Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak – I assume it will be the first – prove to be an effective and sincere prime minister during a serious economic crisis – why, then the Tories could still be victorious in two years’ time.
So stop whining and defeatism! The leadership debate is not irreparably toxic. When the clouds clear, the Tories will face only Sir Keir Starmer and a divided Labor Party.