The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait.
China’s ambitions have risen, along with its military might and the may soon be able from taking democratically ruled Taiwan – even in a battle with the United States. Hoping for an unprecedented third term later this fall, President Xi Jinping cannot afford to appear weak. He has stepped up pressure on Taiwan and apparently believes that the United States is abandoning its vigilance over Taiwan’s status and will soon formally support the island’s independence.
At the same time, the long-standing “strategic ambiguity” in the US has given way to strategic confusion. President Biden’s erroneous statements about Taiwan undermine the carefully crafted policies that have kept peace for decades. He has repeatedly said that the United States is committed to defending Taiwan. Last November, Mr Biden noticed that Taiwan is “independent”. Official US-Taiwan exchanges, military cooperation and passages of US warships through the Taiwan Strait that once were kept secret are made public.
A single spark can ignite this flammable situation into a crisis that escalates into military conflict. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could provide that.
The Speaker of the House would be: planning a stop in Taiwan as part of a journey through Asia. Ms. Pelosi and her advisers may think this would have a stabilizing effect: Many in Washington believe strong demonstrations of the US commitment to Taiwan will deter China from risking a military adventure.
But at this point, Ms. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could provoke a strong Chinese response instead.
China considers Taiwan part of its sovereign territory and reacts angrily when American politicians travel there. A visit from Mrs. Pelosi would take this to another level. She would be the highest-ranking American visitor since another Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, in 1997.
Ms Pelosi is also hated in China for Beijing’s insistence on human rights. Images of her getting out in Taiwan would be seen as a serious provocation in China.
Mr Xi, who, like his predecessors, has repeatedly emphasized that: China will one day reunite Taiwan with the mainland, can take great risks to defend an alleged breach of China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Beijing has warned that its military will don’t sit still if the journey continues.
However, Beijing should recognize its role in raising tensions. Critics in the United States rightly warn that China upset the regional balance through its military modernization, raising fears of an invasion of Taiwan. Raids by Chinese military aircraft on Taiwan’s air defense zone are on track to new high this year.
Chinese officials have also recently claimed that the Taiwan Strait does not form international waters, which could indicate that Beijing plans to interfere with transiting foreign ships. China has also stepped up challenges to American ships like Australian, Canadian and other foreign aircraft. Beijing has poached eight of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies since 2016 – only 13 countries plus the Vatican still recognize Taiwan – and have applied economic and other pressure also.
And yet, Chinese officials claim that America is destabilizing the status quo, citing Mr Biden’s statement repeated insist that the United States would defend Taiwan. Two former Trump cabinet secretaries, Mike Pompeo and Mark Esperhave gone further, calling not only for a rock-solid U.S. pledge to defend Taiwan, but also for the “one chinapolicy, in which the United States recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, but only “acknowledges” the Chinese view that Taiwan is part of China.
Some members of Congress are continuing the Taiwan Policy Law, which would redefine the relationship between the US and Taiwan, provide financing for Taiwan’s arms purchases, give Taiwan the status of a “major non-NATO ally” and take other steps to increase recognition of the Taiwanese government. improve. Beijing interprets these as violations of long-term US commitments made to china.
In our conversations with Chinese experts, the accumulation of these perceived changes in the US position has led some of them to argue that China needs to take steps to make its redlines credible.
Chinese leaders would like to avoid war with the United States but would be willing to risk an escalation, such as challenging Ms Pelosi’s plane or flying military planes directly over Taiwan for the first time. Accidental escalation would be a real risk.
In Washington, some experts think a crisis with Beijing over Taiwan is inevitable and that the United States should do it not back down. And Chinese leaders reflexively characterize nearly all US actions in support of Taiwan as dangerously provocative, creating the perception that Beijing’s dire warnings about Ms. Pelosi’s trip are mere blunders that can be ignored.
But neither side needs a war. And from a US strategic standpoint, this is a particularly bad issue to pick a fight with China over: even Democratic leaders in the executive and legislatures are divided about Mrs. Pelosi’s journey.
Washington and Beijing must stop the escalation and clearly communicate their concerns and red lines. This is all the more difficult because China’s aggressive propaganda has desensitized Americans to Beijing’s messages. Still, there are steps leaders can take to lower the temperature.
First, Ms. Pelosi must postpone any visit to Taiwan to give the Biden government time to formulate clear and consistent policies toward the island. This is critical, not only so that China understands the US position, but also to make clear to the American people.
Government leaders should work towards a bipartisan consensus on a policy that emphasizes that America’s primary goal is to deter China’s use of force against Taiwan and to preserve peace in the Taiwan Strait. They should make US efforts to stabilize the status quo, including steps that both Washington and Beijing could take to mitigate the risks.
In addition, the United States must reassure Taiwan that it will push for a peaceful settlement of the Strasbourg disputes. The United States may prevent the delivery of overdue weapons and approve the sale of additional weapons to bolster Taipei’s ability to defend itself. At the same time, Washington must make it clear to Beijing that the United States stands behind its “one China” policy and does not support Taiwan’s independence.
Critics of this approach will argue that Beijing is a bully, that bullies only respond to strength, and that Washington—and Mrs. Pelosi—can’t back down. But we are sleepwalking into a crisis. Leaders on all sides must wake up and find exits to avoid a dangerous confrontation that neither side wants.
Bonnie S. Glaser (@BonnieGlaser) is director of the Asia Program at the United States’ German Marshall Fund and has served as an adviser to the Departments of Defense and Foreign Affairs on China issues. Zack Cooper (@ZackCooper), a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and co-director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy, served in the Pentagon and the White House during the George W. Bush administration.
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