Major Pollster increases Republicans’ predicted medium-term advantage – Abortion decision doesn’t move needle for dems, #Major #Pollster #Increases #Republicans #Predicted #Midterm #Advantage #Abortion OLASMEDIA TV NEWSThis is what we have for you today:
Despite huge pressure from the Democratic Party to make abortion a top voter motivator in the midterm elections, a major pollster predicted the Republican Party will gain even more seats in the US House.
The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade had no “huge impact” on the overall House vote, according to to Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
There are 10 changes to ‘s home ratings @kkondik at Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Updated interactive map, including a link to the analysis: https://t.co/jgxFkV8WiH pic.twitter.com/ofzTqUtvi8
— 270toWin (@270toWin) July 28, 2022
“Our top-line assessment of the house image hasn’t really changed since the Dobbs decision. We continue to see Republicans as highly favored to win the majority with seats left, as they only need to win 5 more seats than they won in 2020 (213) to turn the House around,” the pollster said.
The poll warned that anything less than Republicans winning 20 seats in the House could leave the party “vulnerable” in the 2024 election.
In an interim environment like this, the opposition party has the clear advantage in terms of ‘nationalizing’ races, centering on national themes such as dissatisfaction with President Biden (whose approval rating languishes in the 1930s) and issues such as inflation and gas prices. Sabato’s Crystal Ball. (RELATED: Another American Dream Clings to Life Under Biden’s Watch)
If Democrats fail to make abortion a national theme for voters, Republicans could have a “strong show” and win as many as 30 seats in the U.S. House, according to the poll.
The review found that nine out of ten US House rating changes to Sabato’s Crystal Ball were positive for the Republican Party.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved two US House seats in Colorado further away from Democrats, flipping the 8th district from a “throw-up” district to “leaning Republican” and the 7th district from “probably Democrat” to “leaning Democratic” .
Three Florida US House seats (the 4th, 7th and 28th districts) and Wisconsin’s 1st district were changed from “probably” to “safely Republican,” according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
The polls also changed North Carolina’s 13th district from a “toss-up” district to “leaning Republican” and Indiana’s 1st district from “leaning Democrat” to “toss-up”.
🚨🚨Sabato’s crystal ball changed #IN01 from “leans democratic” to “toss up”.
“Democrats have been losing ground in these neighborhoods in recent years, so we’re calling it a Toss-up now.” – Kyle Kondik, Editor-in-Chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ballhttps://t.co/hB8CvaX7QU
— Jennifer-Ruth Green (@JenRuthGreen) July 28, 2022
The Democrats did win in Georgia’s 2nd district, with pollsters upgrading the district from a “leans-democratic” to a “probably democratic.”
“Overall, these changes bring Republicans so close to the magic number of 218. We now rate 217 districts as Secure, Likely or Lean Republican, while 191 have been rated as Secure, Likely or Lean Democratic,” the pollster said. .