Speaker Nancy Pelosi was set to appear in Singapore on Monday as part of a close Asia tour that has sparked fears, including at the highest levels of the US government, of dangerously heightened tensions with China about the possibility that she would make a stopover in Taiwan.
Ms. Pelosi has not confirmed whether she will visit Taiwan, a self-governing democracy of 23 million people that China claims as its own territory. But she had suggested a trip to the island this year, which was postponed because she contracted the coronavirus, and when asked recently about her travel plans, she said it was “important for us to show support for Taiwan”.
On Sunday, Ms Pelosi revealed some more details about her itinerary, which she had previously declined to disclose, citing safety concerns. Her office said in a pronunciation that her trip, on which she would be accompanied by a small congressional delegation, would include visits to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, to “focus on mutual security, economic partnership and democratic governance in the Indo-Pacific region.” A post on the website of the US Chamber of Commerce in Singapore said Ms Pelosi would attend a cocktail reception hosted by the group Monday afternoon.
The possibility of a trip to Taiwan by Ms. Pelosi – who would be the highest-ranking US official to go there since 1997, when a previous speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, came to visit – comes at a particularly delicate moment in the relations between the US and China. The Biden Administration has become more and more concerned that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, may try to use force against Taiwan within a year and a half.
Mr Xi, China’s most authoritarian leader in decades, has pledged to pursue reunification with Taiwan, though he has not specified a timeline. Some analysts fear he will feel pressure to take a tough stance — possibly including military action — against any alleged challenge to that pledge ahead of a major Chinese Communist Party congress this fall, when he’s expected to run for a third term. will claim as leader.
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Mr Biden himself has seemingly alluded to the risk of a clash with China if Ms Pelosi visits. Recently asked by reporters about the proposed trip, he said that “the military doesn’t think it’s a good idea at the moment.” The president has also been strengthen US relations with Asian allies as a potential counterweight to the rise of China.
China did not specify how it would react if Ms Pelosi’s visit went ahead. During a two-hour telephone conversation between Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden on Thursday, their first direct conversation in four months, Mr. Xi mr. Biden against “playing with fire” on the Taiwanese issue, according to a statement from the Chinese government that did not explicitly mention the House speaker.
Others were more direct in disapproving of the potential visit. A spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, Zhao Lijian, told reporters last week that China would take “firm and resolute measures” if Ms. Pelosi visited Taiwan and that the United States would be “responsible for all serious consequences.” Some political analysts and state media commentators have suggested that China activate its air force to prevent the visit, raising the specter of armed conflict.
The Chinese Army announced it would conduct live ammunition exercises on Saturday in the waters of southeastern Fujian province, about 80 miles from Taiwan. On Sunday, a spokesman for the Chinese Air Force said: said that the country’s fighter jets flew around Taiwan to enhance its ability to defend territorial integrity, without specifying dates.
The Biden administration insists its stance on Taiwan has not changed, a message Mr. Biden passed on to Mr. Xi during their phone call, according to the White House. Long-standing US policy recognizes, without endorsing it, China’s position that Taiwan is part of its territory, and states that the United States would protect the island without saying exactly how.
But the president has little official authority over Ms. Pelosi and her travel plans. And rising anti-China sentiment in both the Democratic and Republican parties makes it politically inconvenient for Mr. Biden to openly discourage her journey.
Some Chinese and US analysts have downplayed the risks of military escalation, noting that Mr Xi would likely want to avoid unpredictability ahead of this year’s party congress. On Friday, a White House national security spokesperson said: told reporters that the United States had seen no evidence of imminent Chinese military activity against Taiwan.
At the same time, domestic politics, both in China and the United States, had left little room for graceful de-escalation, said Chen Qi, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing. It could cost Democrats a lot of money politically if Ms. Pelosi decided not to visit Taiwan, Professor Chen said in a statement. interview with a journalist for Xinhua, the Chinese state news agency. And China couldn’t afford to be seen as weak in the face of an alleged provocation.
“Now it’s up to who blinks first,” said Professor Chen.
John Liu and Claire Fu contributed research