The presence of the Taoiseach at a “Euro-Atlantic” dinner held on the sidelines of a NATO summit is undoubtedly an important step for Irish foreign policy.
History historians may conclude that last night could be the time when Ireland finally puts both feet firmly in the western camp.
For decades during the second half of the last century, after a world war in which it remained neutral, Ireland pursued a policy of determined liberties.
Frank Aiken, the standout figure of Irish foreign affairs, hoped to map a “third way” through the Cold War poles of East and West, America and Russia.
He also clearly saw that China was neither, but a power in its own right, even if it was communist. Despite the power of the Roman Catholic Church in Ireland, the state in Asia has always followed a cautious path. To this day, we recognize that China and tacitly other areas fall within the Chinese sphere – without, for example, sharing the Western push for Taiwanese independence.
But the world has changed, and such niceties are parked. The crisis in Ukraine is undeniably propelling Ireland towards full participation in European co-security – whether that be defined solely in EU terms, or extending to membership in a nuclear-wielding NATO.
At the moment we are a member of a Nordic battlegroup, which means we contribute a little to non-confrontational maneuvers and limited exercises of little or no threat. Our main military commitment has always been to peacekeeping around the world.
Indeed, our only joint shots fired in anger were in the Congo – and then we were somehow ashamed of the bravery displayed in Jadotville. But there could be future Jadotvilles, where not only the subtle shift from peacekeeping to peace enforcement takes place, but also Ireland’s contribution to support an assertive EU force.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin yesterday highlighted his meetings with ‘small countries’ – but both Norway and Iceland are NATO members, and the head of NATO, the acclaimed Jens Stoltenberg, is Norwegian. He also met Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, who heads another neutral country in Europe. But this is a shrinking club.
There are 30 NATO members and there are now only five neutral countries in Europe: Ireland, Austria, Malta, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Meanwhile, Finland and Sweden, hitherto neutral, have peeled off and will soon join NATO. In that sense alone, Ireland is now more isolated internationally.
Mr Martin emphasized the positives of Ireland’s neutrality, adding that we are not politically or morally neutral, but it is increasingly sounding like a way out – with his own Tánaiste Leo Varadkar warning in recent months that Ireland can no longer trust on the UK or US to rescue us when we are faced with a disaster.
His view, widely shared in Fine Gael, especially after mock-ups in the Russian media of the nuclear destruction of the UK and Ireland, is that it is time for us to stand on our own two feet – spending much more on the military means. This country currently allocates 0.5 percent of GDP to defence, while NATO requires member states to allocate 2 percent of GDP, although Irish defense spending will increase in the coming years.
Meanwhile, it is true that our membership in the UN Security Council reflects our commitment to the universal values of the United Nations, but we will soon be rotated from it and back in the General Assembly.
So what about the future? Is it conceivable that Ireland will eventually join NATO?
Mr Martin says it will ultimately be a matter for the people. But he’s also talking about a closer involvement in things like cybersecurity and hybrid attacks, citing last year’s attack on the HSE that came from elements in Russia’s Saint Petersburg. “We can’t be neutral about that either,” he said. “We need to work with like-minded states.”
But while the Taoiseach speaks of the need to increase our capabilities, he also mentions “interoperability with other member states” – suggesting unified equipment and military systems, as if it were part of a puzzle very much like a European army.
Previously, references were lost on such points, but now there seems to be greater stubbornness – and we clearly seem to be drifting in that direction.