Thanks to the good folks at Elevate Analysis, we can now confidently predict the outcome of all three Dunedin Premier Playoff games tomorrow. But you might want to keep that lazy fiver in your pocket.
Taieri v University
Peter Johnstone Park
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Taieri: won 8
University: 2 won, 6 . lost
Round robin result: Taieri 38, University 14
Key stats: Taieri has set the benchmark all season, leading the competition in tries with 44. The Eels have the most accurate lineout (81.18%) of the teams still chasing and have won more bad luck (632) than any other team except Dunedin. They have also scored more points (297) and awarded fewer points (100) than any other team. The only statistical crutch University can lean on is that it wins 96.83% of its scrums, compared to Taieri’s 92.42% pass rate – the second worst in the league.
Forecast: Taieri galore.
Dunedin v South
Kettle Park
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Dunedin: won 6, lost 2
South: won 4, lost 4
Round robin result: Dunedin 36, South 32
Key stats: Dunedin has not scored a single card this season. That’s an A+ for discipline. The Sharks have the second most accurate scrum. They have won 98.46% of their own ball and have won the battle at the breakdown 690 times. Interestingly, however, their breakdown accuracy (92.62%) is the worst of the nine teams. Southern sits in the middle of the pack for most of the key stats. That sums up the season of the Magpies.
Forecast: Comfortable win for Dunedin.
Port of Kaikora
watson park
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Haven: won 5, lost 3
Kaikorai: won 5, lost 3
Round robin result: Port 33, Kaikorai 10
Key stats: Harbor (96.85%) and Kaikorai (95.76%) are the two most accurate sides in the breakdown, but both struggle in the lineout. Harbor has won 71.93% of his ball, which is the third lowest. Kaikorai is the worst at 68.67%. Harbor’s scrum runs at 91.43% – the lowest success rate. Kaikorai (95.71%) has a lead there, but not when Harbour’s Super Rugby players show up and bolster the front row.
Forecast: Algorithm says no – as in no idea. Both sides will advance to the semi-finals if Taieri and Dunedin win – one as the winner and the other as the highest-ranked loser.