It’s a morning in August 2032. You lean over the edge of your organic mattress and turn off your electric alarm. The smell of free trade certified coffee fills the air. Soon you will be in the shower, warmed by an electric hot water boiler. Rejuvenated and ready, exit your building, unplug your car and quietly zoom away to your breakfast meeting. Such visions of the future seem quite feasible, don’t they?
The passing of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the US has raised hopes that this is just the beginning, that other renewable energy and sustainability visions of the future could come within our reach.
What could 2032 look like for you?
Let’s pretend we’re looking into an all-electric crystal ball and see the social and lifestyle changes that could become commonplace if renewable energy became the standard of society.
Sustainable living in 2023 — Visions for the future
On that all-electric drive to work in 2032, you’ll see that more than half of the new cars on the road are electric vehicles like yours. Along the way, EV charging is available almost every mile of your journey, with most former gas stations either closed or having dual gas pumps and electric charging purposes. You slow down when an electric mail truck turns to deliver.
A little further on, you’ll see a line of workers queuing in front of a huge battery factory. You’ve heard they work double shifts to meet the demand.
You pass one of those formerly highly polluting heavy trucks serving ports and sprawling logistics centers; now that it is electrified, the truck is efficient, clean and almost silent.
There is a huge recycling center near one of the exits. With plastic manufacturing bans coming into effect in most states, recreating existing plastics into products has become big business. The ragsman of the past is now becoming a wealthy entrepreneur.
You smile when you see the activity around the former natural gas plant. After new local building codes went into effect to block the use of fossil fuels, you weren’t surprised to learn that the city’s moms and dads were going to dismantle the factory. As you walk past it, you identify the entrance to the water; So that is why ideas floating around to use the site as a base for offshore power generation and staging.
After work you stop by your mother’s apartment in a multi-family complex. She’s so happy she’s warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer than it was years ago — and advancements in energy building codes make her costs comparable to or lower than fossil fuel buildings. With heat pumps for water and space heating and energy-efficient electrical appliances, she feels safe and satisfied.
Your mom’s building uses community sun, but it’s still not available everywhere. Your friends who work remotely from rural areas have applied available (and hefty) discounts to install individual solar panels on their roofs. Some friends have even signed up for pilot projects to have solar windows. They only wish the waiting lists weren’t so long.
As you drive, plan your evening meal. Your induction hob is fast, so cooking isn’t a chore. You’ll be thankful to know that there are no more harmful indoor pollutants floating around the house from a gas-fired stove. Your CSA has several interesting vegetable recipes on cooking with sorghum, a highly drought-tolerant crop, and you’ve tried this ancient grain for your gluten-free friends — a Greek sorghum vegetarian bowl sounds delicious for tonight’s meal.
After dinner, plan to sit down and research your next big trip. Now that the decarbonization of air travel is very slowly getting underway – sustainable jet fuel isn’t making the promised dent – you’re going on a group sailing trip with some good friends. The essence of the ocean around you, local dishes prepared simply and reconnecting you with the natural world are sure to be relaxing and invigorating.
What is the data behind these visions of the future?
Are these pipe dreams? Not necessary. As canary media so succinctly outlined, the IRA will provide a major boost to grid energy storage, boost solar energy, transform the housing electrification market, kick-start efforts to decarbonise air travel, provide funds for purchase of clean electric mail trucks, spend $60 billion on environmental justice efforts, and revolutionize solar, wind and battery manufacturing.
Here are some data to back up the dreams.
Electric water heaters are safe, according to South Central Power. There is no danger of carbon monoxide poisoning, combustion or explosion. Electric water heaters are environmentally friendly and can use electricity generated from solar, wind, hydropower and other renewable sources. They are easy to install and do not require expensive gas pipes, flues or fuel tanks on site. Compared to other fuels, electricity costs are stable. In addition, electric boilers are emerging as building blocks of the future electricity grid. These previously mundane units are evolving into smart devices and energy storage units that help the grid become more stable and efficient. By heating water when electricity demand is low and storing the thermal energy for later use, electric water heaters can save you money.
Battery factory growth: Batteries are emerging as a critical ingredient in the transition to a more sustainable future due to their role in electrifying transportation and balancing power grids. The US Department of Energy announced $3.1 billion in funding from President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Act. It will be designated to make more batteries and components, strengthen domestic supply chains, create high-paying jobs and help reduce costs for families. Infrastructure investments will support the establishment of new, retrofitted and expanded commercial facilities, as well as manufacturing demonstrations and battery recycling. McKinsey & Company expects the battery cell market to grow at an average rate of more than 20% per year through 2030, reaching at least $360 billion globally.
Air travel decarbonisation: Air travel is responsible for about 3% of global CO2 emissions. If not acted now, it could represent up to 22% of global emissions by 2050 as other industries decarbonise at a faster rate. Promisingly, the International Air Transport Association, including nearly 300 airlines, passed a resolution for the global air transport industry to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Shell has commissioned a white paper which recognizes that the aviation industry can and should achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. It outlines a sectoral approach where governments, business and civil society work together to make real and meaningful progress. This approach – involving airlines, engine and aircraft manufacturers, airports, governments, financial community and those who benefit from flying – is a way for the megacorporation to avoid responsibility for short hop all-electric air travel. More can and must be done to decarbonise air traffic.
Regenerative agriculture, sustainable agriculture: In total, the IRA provides approximately $40 billion to Agriculture – specifically aimed at helping farmers of all sizes and creating more diverse farming systems – $4 billion to increase drought resilience, $14 billion set aside for rural clean energy and economic growth, $5 billion to fight wildfires and carbon sequestration projects, and $2.2 billion to help farmers who have experienced discrimination from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
More and more people interrogated appear to want to provide financial incentives that encourage farmers to adopt regenerative practices and verify that they are taking those actions, such as no-tillage farming or planting cover crops. Those actions help store carbon in the soil, while also reducing erosion, improving water quality, and enhancing or creating wildlife habitat. Sorghum instead of corn due to drought has the potential to be a winner. Its advantages are that it does not need to be irrigated, does not require pesticides and only requires a third of the fertilizer that wheat needs.
The recycling/recreation process for plastics requires chemicals upcycling from polymers – the process of selectively converting discarded plastics into higher value chemicals, fuels or materials. It holds a promise to change the waste plastic paradigm from waste to a valued resource. There is a great opportunity for fundamental research to provide the fundamental knowledge needed to move towards a circular economy life cycle for plastics, where the chemical components of plastics are transformed into polymers or reused to give them a new life.
Meanwhile making new items by produce directly from waste because an end product makes the news and gives a completely different value to the original material.
Water and wetlands: to recover wetlands, coastal areas, forests, prairies and grasslands can help store carbon, act as: natural defenses to absorb rain during storms, provide a habitat for wildlife, and help filter pollutants from rivers and streams.
Final Thoughts
Julian Brave NoiseCat, a climate and indigenous advocate, told: Bloomberg that he hopes that by the next decade we will look back on the IRA as a first step. The bill will help the U.S. “politically enough,” he says, by cutting emissions so that better government policies can follow later this decade. “I think there are legitimate concerns that communities affected by polluted land and left behind by the fossil fuel economy are not getting enough investment in this bill to benefit from a cleaner economy,” he noted. He also admits that “this bill marks an end to generational politics on climate change.”
The forward climate momentum is happening fast around us. As reported by the Washington PostMassachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) has signed a major climate and clean energy bill that includes sweeping policies targeting renewables, transportation and fossil fuels — a move that legislators and advocates say is critical to supporting the goal of the able to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Signed! pic.twitter.com/AOLCSh97Ny
— Senator Mike Barrett (@senatorbarrett) August 11, 2022
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