The decision by Spain, Norway and Ireland on Wednesday to recognize an independent Palestinian state marks the final brick in the wall of rejection being built around Israel's current far-right government, which is asking the world to leave Hamas in Gaza destroy, while she refuses to do so. working towards a new future with non-Hamas Palestinians.
More than 140 countries and the Holy See have recognized the Palestinians' right to a state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. What is notable about this latest move, however, is that major Western European countries, and the United States, had opposed it, arguing that peace between the two sides needed to be worked out. Until today.
My focus is always on the practical: will this recognition of a non-existent Palestinian state with undefined borders lead to the only lasting solution – a real peace between two states for two indigenous communities – Jews and Palestinians? The answer is yes and no.
In the short term, these diplomatic acknowledgments from fellow democracies will not move the Israeli public, Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, told me. In the wake of the horrific murders, rapes and kidnappings committed by Hamas on October 7, he said, Europeans told Israel to accept a Palestinian state – “without even mentioning that it must be demilitarized or that there are any obligations to the side of the Palestinians. to reject Hamas” – will be “rejected” by Israel's silent majority.
In the long run, however, it is precisely these kinds of diplomatic shocks that could lead opposition leaders in Israel to finally escape the pull of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who dominates what can or cannot be said on this subject – and start calling for into two states on terms that Israel can live with. You can already see signs of that.
However, if that doesn't happen, Israel is heading for a world of pain. This recognition of a Palestinian state by European countries “is a huge straw in the wind, which will become a hurricane if Israel does not change course.” Craig Charneya pollster who was part of Nelson Mandela's polling team in the 1990s told me.
Charney explained that the isolation of South Africa's apartheid regime began with a voluntary arms embargo in the 1960s, which turned into a formal UN arms embargo after the Soweto uprising in the 1970s, which grew into a popular cause in the early years on campuses and in boardrooms. The 1980s grew into a broader economic, military, and travel embargo, until two major leaders, Nelson Mandela and FW de Klerk, finally emerged to end apartheid. “But it was a very painful journey,” he said.