For decades, Iran's leaders could point to high turnout in their elections as proof of the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic's political system. But if Voter turnout in elections has fallen in recent yearsthe elections they will now be forced to hold after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi will force the political establishment into a decision it does not want to make.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's supreme leader, has two options, each of which carries risks.
He could ensure that the presidential elections, which under the Constitution must take place within 50 days of Raisi's death, are open to everyone from hardliners to reformists. But that risks a competitive election that could take the country in a direction he doesn't want.
Or he can repeat his strategy recent electionsand block not only reformist rivals, but even moderate, loyal opposition figures. That choice could embarrass him with even lower voter turnout, a move that would be interpreted as a sharp rebuke of his increasingly authoritarian state.
Voter turnout in elections in Iran has been on a downward trajectory in recent years. In 2016, more than 60 percent of the country's voters participated in the parliamentary elections. In 2020 this was 42 percent. Officials had promised that the result of March would have been higher – instead it came to just under 41 percent.
Just a week before Mr. Raisi's death, Tehran's final round of parliamentary elections yielded just 8 percent of the potential vote — a stunning number in a country where Mr. Khamenei once mocked Western democracies with a turnout of 30 up to 40 percent.
“Khamenei has been given a golden opportunity to give people easy and face-saving access to the political process – if he chooses to seize this opportunity,” said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iranian political analyst and editor of Amwaj. an independent news media outlet. “Unfortunately, what has happened in recent years indicates that he will not follow that route.”
Iran is a theocracy with a parallel system of government in which elected bodies are overseen by appointed councils. Major state policies in nuclear, military and foreign affairs are determined by Ayatollah Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council, while the Revolutionary Guards have increased their influence over the economy and politics.
The president's role is more limited to domestic policy and economic affairs, but it is still an influential position.
Elections also remain an important litmus test for public sentiment. The low turnout in recent years is seen as a clear sign of the deteriorating mood towards clerics and a political establishment that has become increasingly hardline and conservative.
“For the regime, this distance – this detachment between state and society – is a serious problem,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. “What they want is to maintain a conservative unity, but it is difficult to fill Raisi's shoes.”
Mr. Raisi, a cleric who worked for years in the judiciary and was involved in some of the most brutal acts of repression in the country's history, was a staunch loyalist of Mr Khamenei and his worldview.
A committed supporter of religious rule in Iran, Raisi has long been seen as a potential successor to the supreme leader — despite, or perhaps because of, his lack of a forceful personality that would pose a risk to Mr. Khamenei. With no clear candidate to support, Mr Khamenei could face infighting within his conservative base.
“Raisi was a yes man, and his unimpressive nature was really the point,” says Arash Azizi, a historian who focuses on Iran and teaches at Clemson University in South Carolina. “The political establishment includes many people with serious financial and political interests. There will be a fight for power.”
The candidates allowed to run will be indicative of the kind of path the supreme leader wants to take.
Mohammed Baqer Ghalibaf, a pragmatic technocrat who is Speaker of Parliament and one of the country's perennial presidential candidates, is likely to try to run for office. But his performance in Parliament in recent years has been poorly assessed, Mr Azizi said. Parliament has done little to help resolve Iran's economic crisis, and despite calling himself an advocate for Iran's poor, he sparked national outrage in 2022 over reports that his family had gone shopping in Turkey.
Another likely contender is Saeed Jalili, a former Revolutionary Guard fighter turned nuclear negotiator who is seen as a hardline loyalist to Mr. Khamenei. His candidacy would not bode well for any potential outreach to the West, Mr. Azizi said.
In all recent elections in Iran, Mr. Khamenei has shown willingness to eliminate reformist or even moderate candidates seen as loyal opposition. The results were clear: in 2021, Mr Raisi won with the lowest turnout ever in a presidential election, at 48 percent. On the other hand, more than 70 percent of the 56 million eligible Iranians ballots cast when President Hassan Rouhani was elected in 2017.
And so far there are no signs that Iran's political establishment will change course.
“It is a system that is moving away from its republican roots and becoming more authoritarian,” Ms. Vakil said, adding of Mr. Khamenei: “As long as he is comfortable with repressive control and the elite maintain their unity, expect a change to see.”