Analysis: US and China on the cutting edge over Taiwan ahead of Xi-Biden’s call, #Analysis #China #knifes #edge #Taiwan #ahead #XiBiden #phone #call Welcome to OLASMEDIA TV NEWSThis is what we have for you today:
The latest US showdown with China has been sparked by leaked plans for a possible visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan — and is particularly dangerous as it is driven by domestic politics on both sides of the Pacific. United States and China as their 21st century superpower struggle takes shape. It also complicates an expected meeting Thursday between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Taiwan seems to have long been the most likely spark for a military escalation between the US and China.
Under the intricate web of agreements governing relations with Beijing, Washington only grants formal diplomatic recognition to the People’s Republic of China, but maintains close ties to Taiwan — a self-governing democracy over which China claims sovereignty.
The US policy of strategic ambiguity has made it unclear what it would do if China ever invaded Taiwan, in part to prevent the government in Taipei from encouraging a formal declaration of independence. But the US is legally obligated to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.
China has strongly warned that it will take “resolute and firm” measures if Pelosi visits. An attack on her plane is unthinkable. But there is speculation in Washington that China could overshadow its US military plane with fighter jets or even send planes to fly over Taiwan itself — a highly volatile scenario fraught with the possibility of miscalculation.
Given such rhetoric, it would be difficult for China not to take unprecedented action if Pelosi showed up. Xi has little room to de-escalate ahead of a national party congress later this year, which is expected to confirm his unusual third term.
Biden revealed, perhaps unwisely, that the US military was not enthusiastic about Pelosi’s visit. Now, if he convinces the speaker not to go, he will be charged with yielding to the Chinese, a charge that no US president can bear — especially one whose approval rating has plunged below 40%.
Pelosi, the third-highest person in the US administration, has been sparring with China over human rights for 30 years and is not the type to be bullied. With Democrats tipped to lose the House in November’s midterm elections, she won’t be able to stand making what could be one of her last major plays on the international stage a climb to Beijing.
The White House, keen not to offend a Democratic icon and aware of the political sensibility of trying to arm another branch of government, has spoken with Pelosi behind the scenes about the risks of her journey. , according to CNN reporting.
On Capitol Hill, hawkish advice comes from both sides of the aisle.
“We must not allow them to bluff and dictate to America, the greatest nation in the world, where our Speaker of the House should travel,” California progressive Democratic Representative Ro Khanna told CNN’s “The Situation Room” Tuesday. . “I mean, who are they to say Speaker Pelosi shouldn’t go to Taiwan?”
Republican minority leader Kevin McCarthy weighed in by saying that Pelosi “shouldn’t back down now”. He also said he would lead a congressional delegation to Taiwan if he becomes a speaker next year — though such a visit would potentially be less explosive than Pelosi’s, as Biden could argue with the Chinese that rival Republicans don’t represent his policies.
Given the political tensions on both sides, it is difficult to see how Biden and Xi can alleviate the situation.
Things can get perilous when Xi asks Biden to stop Pelosi from visiting him. Biden has no power to let that happen. But the Chinese leader could take offense if the speaker then makes the trip, further damaging confidence.
China, which is becoming more and more capable militarily, is also looking to the vocal bipartisan calls on Capitol Hill to dispel strategic ambiguity and have the US simply declare that it would defend Taiwan. Biden hasn’t exactly helped by repeatedly making statements that run throughout the policy — only to have them backtracked by aides.
Bonny Lin, the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the best that could come out of the call might be a mutual understanding of exactly what China would do if Pelosi leaves.
“Hopefully there’s something the Chinese can give us in terms of understanding how China might respond so that hopefully the US and Taiwan can plan a way that won’t escalate this dynamic further,” Lin said.
But China may not yet know how it would respond, she added. And it may not be interested in steps that de-escalate the situation.
Much depends on what Pelosi decides to do.