Auckland mayoralty: who wins over Leo Molloy’s shock withdrawal?

OPINION: Timing is everything and Leo Molloy’s Shock Withdrawal the Auckland mayoral race is all about timing.

Less than an hour before today closing of the nominations in the afternoon before the elections of October 8, a text message to stuff from Molloy’s camp said in response to a routine question, “Leo’s out”.

A full statement from the fallen candidate came shortly after.

“I can’t win,” was the main line of the colorful restaurateur who had talked about a big campaign game – spending maybe $1.5 million – and that he could be mayor for nine years or more.

The clock was ticking and less than an hour before the afternoon deadline, when Molloy’s name might or might not be on the ballot, he pulled the plug.

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This is the busiest mayoral race in the fifth Auckland Council election and Molloy had gone big and early to try and establish himself as the clear challenger to the center-left dominance of the mayoralty.

But by Friday afternoon, Molloy’s big brash campaign hadn’t cleared his mind, and a poll result he got late Thursday night brought “humiliating” news that he was in decline, especially among the undecided.

The task of being the nominee to end the Labour-leaning hold on Auckland’s mayoralty has become increasingly difficult, and it’s not clear how much money came in from outside to top up Molloy’s personal cash.

The Curia survey for the Taxpayers’ Union branch, the Auckland Ratepayers Alliance, showed Molloy slipped from its first match with Collins in June to third behind “The Fixer”, another big player in Wayne Brown.

The intriguing question we won’t know on this side of October 8 was whether there was room for both Molloy and center-right Viv Beck. Molloy blinked first and left the race, instead of Beck, who was the last candidate to submit her nomination form, just two hours before the close.

Molloy’s camp wasn’t sure what time she’d made a decision, saying they’d hoped “Viv would wave the white flag” and give them enough hope to stay inside. She didn’t.

For what a poll of 500 people is worth, the significant 45% that leaves out undecided, they were Collins 22.3%, Wayne Brown 18.6%, Molloy 14.5% and Viv Beck 12.5%. Take out Molloy, and depending on where his trailer goes, Brown still has plenty of air between him and Beck.

Brown appears to be the direct beneficiary, but with seven weeks to go the relative performance of Collins and Beck will be watching closely.

Collins will have to make sure he can mobilize the voices of the young, in the South and West, and Beck will have to sell her platform of granular policy, against Brown’s simple and focused ‘Mr Fixit’ message.

The field may have gotten smaller, but the match just got more interesting, albeit less colorful.