Remark
Boris Johnson’s reign to destroy Britain’s democratic institutions may have come to an end, but the conditions that enabled him remain, writes Aeron Davis
It’s goodbye to Johnson, but not goodbye to the continuing dangerous chaos that has characterized British politics since the Brexit vote in July 2016.
At the time of writing, Boris Johnson is pulling out the last remnants of his premiership. The long, slow car crash that marked the last few months of his premiership is finally over (well, almost).
The protracted endgame began with Partygate and went through a series of mishandled political scandals, cover-ups and electoral setbacks. The last few days have begun with the resignation of Chris Pincher, his Deputy Chief Whip, for drunkenly groping two men at his Gentlemen’s Club.
As it turned out, Johnson had been warned about Pincher’s behavior before, but named him anyway (Johnson reportedly joked “pincher by name, pincher by nature”). He spent days denying that inside information.
It was the last straw for many in the Conservative Party. His chancellor, Rishi Sunak, and health minister, Sajid Javid, coordinated their very public resignations. Up to 40 other members of government soon followed, a record for a British government. Still, he tried to cling until there was little left to cling to.
For many in Westminster and in the London commentary, a sad period in British political life is coming to an end. For decades, no one ever believed that this prankster would come close to becoming prime minister. Like Donald Trump, he successfully defied the opinion of a campaign of pundits, with an uncanny knack for winning over voters through sheer personality power.
Everyone knew his history of lies, his various affairs, his dog whistle racism, his lazy incompetence, his heartless self-interest. And yet nothing seemed to stick.
Once in power, behind the brutal bonhomie, he began ruthlessly to dismantle the pillars of British democracy, from prorogating parliament and severely curtailing the right to protest to weakening the independence of the BBC and electoral commission. He showed the same low regard for international law. His reign was one of the slowest to respond to the first wave of Covid and Britain’s per capita death rate was one of the highest in the world. With Johnson gone, the hope is for a return to a more subdued and respectful parliamentary system, to pragmatic, sensible politics and to stable democracy. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to be the case. Just as Trumpism continues without a Trump presidency in the US, so do Johnsonism and the conditions that enabled Johnson to continue.
Whoever takes over from Johnson inherits the same divisions and the same policy vacuum. Only now they will have a lack of talent to choose from.
His arrival initially marked a revival in British politics after three years of parliamentary stalemate when the country appeared to be in a time loop. Johnson was seen as the only one who could unite the party and the country and push through Brexit. But Johnson’s victory and two years of pandemic-induced crisis have capped many entrenched and long-running problems that are now likely to resurface.
The Conservative Party is riddled with warring factions and a lack of new policy ideas. Every leader since his election defeat in 1997 has reverted to an increasingly outdated version of Thatcherism. They and their allies are united more by what they oppose than what they stand for. When fighting to reach Brexit, pointing at foreign enemies or tilting at awakened windmills, they have found a common cause. But being a government that is constantly in opposition is no substitute for active political and economic vision or detailed policy proposals.
Whoever takes over from Johnson inherits the same divisions and the same policy vacuum. Only now they will have a lack of talent to choose from. To achieve Brexit, Johnson has forced many of his most experienced colleagues to expel from the country and alienate many of his international allies. In strengthening his political position, he repeatedly rewarded loyalty over ability, removing many more able Tories from the fold. Looking at all the leading candidates to succeed Johnson, it’s hard to see someone with both long cabinet experience and the ability to bring the different factions together.
All the top candidates are united by two things: maintaining a hard Brexit and cutting taxes. Neither will alleviate the glaring problems facing the general population, the crisis in the cost of living, crumbling health and other public services and increasing national polarization. Thus, Johnson leaves a fragmented, mistrusted party with little talent or vision, a party full of ministers who previously liked to facilitate Johnson’s clownocracy and his destruction of democratic institutions.
Outside of the Tory party, in many ways the UK is back in the political deadlock and crisis it found itself in after the Brexit vote in 2016. The civil service and the welfare state are demoralized and worn out.
Keir Starmer’s Labor opposition seems as devoid of ideas as the Tory opposition. Like the Conservatives, they are also deeply divided and have only made progress by relentlessly ousting many traditional leftists.
Both Labor and Conservative have become organizations of control rather than parties with clearly aligned voter groups and views. Neither has answers for dealing with a broken and debt-ridden economic system or for reconnecting with the wider electorate. And neither of them looks set to achieve a parliamentary majority in the next election.
Many mature democracies have suffered economically and politically from Covid and are feeling the effects of war in Europe and the shutdown of China. Many are now battling raging inflation, massive debt, a lack of trust in government and a crisis in the cost of living.
The difference for the UK is that it was hit harder by the financial crisis of 2007-08, has experienced a decade of austerity economics and also has to deal with the many damaging consequences of leaving the EU. Unsurprisingly, the country is now experiencing the kind of widespread industrial action and unrest most recently encountered in the height of the Thatcher years.
In many ways, the 2016 Brexit vote was also a stark rebuttal from the British establishment, both left and right. In 2022, that rejection seems to go way beyond the ballot box.
History teaches us that behind every major economic crisis lies the potential for right-wing, anti-democratic populists. Johnson may be gone, but the potential for another Johnson to emerge in the UK remains (note Aotearoa as the same economic problems and socio-political divisions are becoming more apparent here as well).