Boris Johnson has downplayed suggestions he could call a quick general election – despite claims it is his only option left as he fights defiantly to remain prime minister.
Mr Johnson’s premiership has been secured after he suffered a flurry of resignations from his government as large swaths of Tory MPs withdrew their support.
The prime minister is also under pressure from cabinet ministers – as well as senior backbencher Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the Tories‘ mighty 1922 Committee – to finally admit defeat.
However, when he appeared before the House of Commons Liaison Committee yesterday afternoon, Johnson insisted he “had no intention of resigning” despite the near-fatal blows dealt to him by his own party.
The prime minister even set off alarm bells at one point when he initially refused to rule out the dissolution of parliament in his efforts to cling to his office.
Boris Johnson’s premiership has been secured after he suffered a flurry of resignations from his government as large swaths of Tory MPs withdrew their support
How can the prime minister dissolve parliament and call general elections?
Earlier this year, Mr Johnson oversaw the repeal of the Parliaments Act for a limited time, meaning the Prime Minister now has the power to request a dissolution of Parliament – leading to a general election – on a time of your choice.
It has been speculated that asking the Queen to dissolve parliament to hold a general election is one of Johnson’s few options in his resolve to remain at number 10.
If that were to happen, the prime minister would have calculated that – although more and more Tory MPs want him gone – voters themselves would still support him to remain in office.
During his appearance on the liaison committee, Mr Johnson repeatedly referred to the “substantial mandate” he won from millions of voters in the 2019 general election – just over two and a half years ago.
He also highlighted the cost of living crisis and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, telling the group of senior parliamentarians: “I’m watching the biggest war in Europe in 80 years and I can’t see for my life what it’s like.” responsible to just walk away from that.
‘Certainly not if you have a mandate like we won two or three years ago.’
These are some of the circumstances under which the Queen could refuse a petition to dissolve a Prime Minister’s Parliament
Can the Queen refuse the Prime Minister’s request to dissolve Parliament?
At some point during his committee appearance, Mr. Johnson received a note from an aide who sat behind him while he was questioned about the so-called “Lascelles Principles.”
These are some of the circumstances under which the Queen could refuse a petition to dissolve a Prime Minister’s Parliament.
These include that the existing Parliament is ‘vital, viable and able to do its job’; a general election that “damages the national economy”; or that the monarch “can rely on finding another prime minister who can rule for a reasonable period of time with a working majority in the House of Commons.”
When asked if he accepted the Queen’s option to deny a request from him to dissolve parliament, Mr Johnson replied: “Insofar as they are designed to avoid pointless wild elections, they seem sensible to me. ‘
How likely is it that the prime minister will try to call a quick general election?
Senior Tory MP Sir Bernard Jenkin, the committee chair, directly asked Mr Johnson if he would resign rather than push for the dissolution of Parliament
The Prime Minister initially ignored the question and replied: “I see absolutely no need for an election.”
He added: “I am not going to resign and the last thing this country needs, frankly, is elections.
“On the contrary, the risk is that people will start to focus on these things and I think that’s a mistake.
‘We must continue with a stable government.’
Further insisted on whether he would rule out a dissolution of Parliament, Mr Johnson rejected suggestions for early elections.
He said, ‘Of course I rule it out. The earliest date I can see for a general election is in two years – or 2024, I think, is the most likely date for the next election.
‘We have an enormous amount to deliver and we are going for it.’
How could the Tory party try to oust Boris?
Before attempting to call an early election, Boris Johnson will likely face another attempt by Tory MPs to force him out.
A month ago, Mr Johnson survived a vote of no confidence in his leadership when he won the support of 211 MPs. This compares to 148 MPs who voted against the prime minister in a bid to evict him Number 10†
below Conservative Party rules, that victory granted Mr. Johnson 12 months of immunity from another vote of no confidence.
It means rebellious Tory MPs face a series of hurdles in their new efforts to force the Prime Minister from office. But here’s how they could do it:
Step 1: Take Control of the Mighty 1922 Committee
The primary job of Rebel MPs is to secure a majority on the decision-making body of the powerful 1922 Conservative Committee.
Elections to the 1922 executive are scheduled for next week, with the contest likely to be a battle between Tory rebels and prime minister loyalists for the top jobs.
Both sides will aim to win more than half of the 18 executive positions to put them in control of the main committee responsible for Tory leadership contests.
Currently, Mr Johnson is safe from a new confidence vote for 12 months after surviving a challenge last month.
However, if he’s still in place, the new executive is likely to consider a rule change that could allow for a second confidence vote — possibly before MPs break for the summer later this month.
Step 2: Shred the Conservative Party Rules
If the rebels manage to seize the leadership of the 1922 executive, they will be able to break current rules that give Johnson a year-long immunity from another vote of no confidence.
They could either remove the immunity rule and keep the current threshold for a new no-confidence vote – meaning 15% of Tory MPs (54 of them) will have to write to the 1922 president to hold a new vote. to initiate.
Or, as has been suggested, they could raise the threshold for another vote of no confidence to 25% of Tory MPs (90 of them) or perhaps an even higher figure.
This would show that a new vote was held in changed circumstances from last month’s contest, while also giving future Tory leaders more protection against repeated no-confidence votes.
Step 3: Force a new vote of no confidence
If the rebel MPs tear up the current rules on no-confidence votes, they’ll be happy to hold such a vote before Parliament’s summer recess begins on July 21.
If, as expected, Mr Johnson were to lose a new no-confidence vote, it would lead to his automatic removal as Conservative leader.
This would then give the Tories the summer to hold a leadership contest – including a vote of party membership – to choose his replacement.
A new leader could then be installed before the Conservative Party conference in October.
But while he tries to stay in power, the prime minister could consider drastic measures to bring the summer recess forward.
This would shorten the already tight window of time for the rebels to hold a vote of no confidence before MPs disappear from Westminster until September.
There’s a possibility that rebel MPs may not even have to hold another no-confidence vote.
Theresa May’s resignation was prompted by the 1922 Committee chairman, Sir Graham Brady, who merely threatened her with a second vote of no confidence – after she survived a first – without requiring formal rule changes.
Plan B: Encouraging Cabinet Ministers to deal the fatal blow
If rebel MPs don’t change the rules to hold another no-confidence vote, they would instead step up their pressure on ministers to bring about the prime minister’s downfall.
Many have already called on top government officials to tell Mr Johnson that the game is over.
And if a majority of his cabinet were to withdraw support for him, there would be little doubt that the prime minister would remain in power and he would be forced to resign.
But Mr Johnson and his No. 10 squad will be buoyed by the fact that Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid’s departure from cabinet last night was not followed by more top-level exits.
He will hope he can maintain the support of his remaining cabinet loyalists – while trying to win back the support of the Tory MPs – and fight through his current woes.