If you’re reading this on your lounger in Spaindon’t let it spoil your vacation.
There is only a very slim chance of disaster striking, but the debris from a 22-ton Chinese rocket is plunging to Earth and could land in the Mediterranean today.
The threat comes from a Long March-5B Y3 rocket launched on July 24 to deliver part of the Chinese space station, which is under construction.
The main core, which is 100 feet (30 meters) long, will largely disintegrate on return — but it’s so massive it could rain debris over an area about 1,000 miles long and less than 80 miles wide.
Possible landing sites include Africa and Europe as far north as Madrid, as well as Australia, Brazil, India and Southeast Asia, and the US. It could also affect flights through France, Italy and Spain.
The good news for Brits looking to the sky is that the rocket’s trajectory keeps it within 41.5 degrees of the equator, so debris won’t fall that far north. Those in mainland Europe, who are at greater risk, will be encouraged to know that no one was killed by rocket debris.
But a study this month estimates the risk of casualties from falling missiles at 10 percent over the next decade, assuming each return spreads debris across 10 square meters.
The threat to humans from the remains of the rocket is low, according to space debris expert Ted Muelhaupt of the US Aerospace Corporation research group.
In general, the odds of someone being injured or killed by falling rocket fragments range from 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 230, he said.
But the individual risk to a person is much lower – on the order of 6 in 10 trillion. In fact, the chance of being struck by lightning is 80,000 times greater, Mr Muelhaupt added. Fortunately, three quarters of the missile’s potential drop zone is water, desert, or jungle.
But parts of it could very well come down in a populated area, as happened in May 2020, when another Chinese missile landed on villages in the Ivory Coast in Africa, damaging buildings.
The EU Space Surveillance and Tracking consortium estimated that the rocket would hit the atmosphere today or tomorrow. It said the debris was the largest to reach Earth in the recent past and required “careful monitoring”, adding: “The potential return path will not bring debris over the UK but could affect flights through Bulgaria, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal and Spain.’
The threat comes from a Long March-5B Y3 rocket launched on July 24 to deliver part of the Chinese space station under construction.
The British Civil Aviation Authority said the missile is unlikely to cause large-scale cancellations, disrupting people’s summer holidays, although some flights may be diverted. The latest forecast is that the rocket could land between 1:00 p.m. today and 3:00 a.m. tomorrow.
Zhao Lijian, of China’s foreign ministry, said the likelihood of debris harming aviation or people and property on the ground was very slim, as most of it would burn.
But Professor David Rothery, of the Open University, criticized the rocket’s uncontrolled descent, warning: “Most of this core will burn up, but a few tons could hit the ground.”
“While the risk of someone getting hurt is small, the Chinese should more responsibly remove used missiles from their orbit.
“It’s not clear exactly where the rocket will re-enter the atmosphere, but … there’s a small chance it will come down over southern Spain.”
dr. Jonathan McDowell, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in the US, said: “We see debris from small rockets falling to Earth every few weeks. But a 20-ton rocket is something else, and the Chinese are outliers in not minimizing the risk of the debris.’