California becomes first state to commit to end sales of polluting heating appliances by 2030

Last week, California became the first state in the United States to commit to ending the sale of polluting fossil fuel devices, notably: furnaces and boilers — by 2030. This move comes on the heels of California’s ban on gas-powered cars by 2035 and is another big step towards achieving CO2 neutrality in 2045. The historic commitment sets the state on the path to transitioning its homes, schools and businesses to clean and efficient non-polluting appliances like electric heat pumps — all while setting a precedent for other states to embrace.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved this measure in its State Implementation Plan, estimate that the requirement for all newly purchased furnaces and boilers to be zero-emissions by 2030 could be reduced health-damaging nitrogen oxide (NOx) pollution fossil fuels – which contribute to a variety of diseases, from childhood asthma to fatal heart disease – will be 20 percent below current levels by 2037.

Our analysis further estimates that disposing of all of California’s current fossil fuel furnaces and boilers at end-of-life from 2030 would avoid a cumulative total of 154 million tons of CO2 emissions by 2045, equivalent to annual energy consumption of more than 19 million homes. On an annual basis, this policy will prevent 1.16 MMT of climate emissions in the first year (2030). However, as more devices switch to electric every year, avoided emissions will be nearly 17 MMT per year by 2045, equivalent to taking 3.6 million gas-powered vehicles off the road.

Importantly, the reduction of air pollution as a result of these policies increases exponentially, meaning the sooner the policies come into effect, the greater the impact. If CARB were to start phasing out newly installed fossil fuel furnaces and boilers in 2025, it could avoid nearly 60% more emissions by 2045 by acting just five years earlier.

Cumulative carbon emissions saved by shutting down fossil fuel furnaces and water heaters in California, RMI

As the policy applies to new appliances, home and building owners looking to replace retired furnaces or water heaters won’t be able to choose from clean and electric alternatives until 2030. Because these devices can last 20 years or more, it’s critical that replacements are fossil-free to avoid trapping decades of additional air pollution and climate-warming emissions.

As CARB prepares its zero-emission device policy, it must ensure that California remains on track for equitable implementation by 2030. This will help the state set a new high bar in America’s transition to a healthy, affordable and clean environment. electric future for everyone.

This analysis only looks at direct emissions from fossil fuel devices. Estimates may be conservative due to limitations in commercial sector data. Analysis used End-use charging profile from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)s, US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) data from the housing energy consumption survey (2020) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emission factors. It assumes linear device turnover at the end of its useful life. Device life according to E3 and EIA: 13 years for domestic boilers, 18 years for domestic ovens, 17 years for commercial boilers, 23 years for commercial ovens.

Through Leah Louis PrescottAlexandra Maxim

© Rocky Mountain Institute 2021. Published with permission. Originally posted on RMI output.


 

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