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New Zealand has recorded the highest daily number of cases in three months. (File photo)
Experts say the second Omicron wave has struck, with more hospitalizations expected than during the initial peak.
On Tuesday, the Ministry of Health registered: 11,548 new community cases from COVID-19 – the highest number of daily cases since April 7, when 11,634 cases were recorded. The number of hospital admissions has also not been this high since April 4.
dr. Emily Harvey, a researcher at Covid-19 Modeling Aotearoa, said Tuesday’s daily case numbers had worried her.
Harvey said the moving average of case numbers was up 30% each week.
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We were facing a second wave of Omicron powered by the BA.5 subvariant, she said. She expected this peak to be similar in size to the first Omicron wave, but with higher hospital admissions.
“The numbers are in line with what we expect from the modeling, but what we expect from the modeling is very concerning.”
Higher rates of infections in older age groups were expected to lead to more hospitalizations, as they had a higher risk of becoming seriously ill, she said.
Professor Michael Plank. from the University of Canterbury told before stuff people in the older age groups who had not yet had Covid would likely be infected by now.
“The number of people who have not yet had Covid may be relatively small in younger age groups. But in older groups, the number of cases has been much lower, so there will be even more people infected in those groups.
Ella Bates-Hermans/Stuff
Harvey said a second Covid-19 vaccine booster shot would help keep hospitalizations low. (File photo)
“It is likely that those who have not had Covid before are at greater risk of getting it in the next wave.”
Harvey said that BA.5 trunk was also more effective at evading vaccination immunity and previous infections.
The number of cases was expected to rise in the rest of July. But, Harvey said, actual infection rates would likely remain unknown, as not all active cases tested or reported positive results.
“While we expect the number of infections to be similar, reported cases may remain lower.”
Precautions such as working from home, social distancing and mask use can make a significant difference in the size of the peak, she said.
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dr. Jemma Geoghegan says the Omicron subvariant can overwhelm protection from a previous infection or vaccination.
A second booster would also help keep hospital admissions low. But they need to get a boost now, she said.
“People need to get the booster now, not next week. It takes a week or two to take effect and cases are on the rise.”
Professor Kurt Krause, an infectious disease expert from the University of Otago, said Tuesday’s numbers made him “concerned” but not “panic”.
“We’re really in a slump driven by a new Omicron variant called BA.5.”
Tuesday’s numbers were significantly higher, but we didn’t know how high the wave would peak, he said.
“The numbers caught my attention,” he said. “I’m concerned, but I don’t think people should panic – I think it’s a good time to find out what we can do.”
He encouraged people to go back to basics and take steps to protect themselves — including boosters and social distancing.
“We’ll take it day by day and see how this blip goes, and hope the blip isn’t too bad.”
Krause said if you were vulnerable and you contracted Covid-19, antivirals could be effective for your recovery.
“If you belong to a vulnerable population and develop Covid, raise your hand to get antivirals.”