Covid Expert: The next Omicron wave may have begun

Epidemiologists at the University of Otago believe that the next Omicron wave may have begun, and the Covid-19 numbers have skyrocketed in the last few days.

The Ministry of Health reported yesterday that the 7-day moving average of community cases was 6,825, an increase of over 2,000 in a week.

Case numbers in the new Southern community remain above 600 for most of the week.

Nationally, hospitalizations have increased by 33% in 7 days, and 423 people are currently hospitalized for the virus.

Professor Michael Baker says this surge in numbers suggests that the next wave of pandemics is about to begin.

“Currently, there are months of declining and stagnant cases across the country, but this is a very noticeable increase in numbers last week alone-I think it’s very convincing.”

At this stage, he said, it is unclear how large or long the next Omicron wave will be.

Development wasn’t unexpected, Baker said.

“Currently, there are multiple factors in favor of the virus. Of course, the most notable is the arrival of newer infectious subvariants of Omicron.”

This includes BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1, which are causing a pandemic wave abroad, he said.

The virus could spread further if immunity is needed over the next few months, Baker said.

On Thursday, Covid-19’s response minister, Ayesha Verrall, said the country needed to stay in the orange traffic light setting as the number of incidents “sneaked up.”

Hospitals were also under flu pressure, but Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations remained well below the peaks experienced earlier this year, she said.