Desperate Vladimir Putin turns to North Korea for weapons, but the war is far from over

The barrage was fired within hours and minutes of the president Volodymyr Zelensky addressing the G20 summit in Bali via video. Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister leading the Russian delegation, was already on his way to the airport.

The attack – and Ukraine‘s air force claimed to have shot down nearly 70 missiles and drones – underscoring in one fell swoop why the war in Ukraine is not a local feud between Kyiv and Moscow, and is of growing global importance.

It came as top delegates condemned Russian aggression. Some had feasted. Interestingly, China has once again distanced itself from Russia over the war.

It is a challenge for the allies who directly support Ukraine, not only the US, NATO and the EU, but also partners such as Australia and Japan. They must now immediately support Ukraine and make up for the cities’ weak air defenses.

There is something desperate about Russia’s actions. The troops have just withdrawn from Kherson, the only provincial capital Moscow has taken since the February 24 invasion. Russia has 100,000 troops in Ukraine — including up to 40,000 on the recent call-up — with many poorly trained and even less equipped.

Russia is now believed to be low on supplies of its Iskander surface-to-surface missiles and has about a month’s reserve of medium and heavy artillery shells, according to Western defense sources. It has changed to North Korea for 152 mm heavy artillery shells. High-level Russian delegations have now visited Tehran twice to shop for several thousand Iranian drones and, more recently, ground-attack missiles. In turn, Iran is seeking help with its nuclear programs, civil and military.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine faces imminent military collapse, although the armed forces of both are taking a beating, but in very different ways. Both are estimated to have lost about 100,000 personnel. Russia will be pressured to raise, train and equip a credible ground force for a renewed offensive in the spring. In the past three months, Ukrainian troops have recaptured more than half of the territory occupied by the Russians in the first six weeks of the war.r.

Ukraine has built a highly effective and innovative army that has surprised Britain and the US as much as the Russians. It masters the new technologies of digital warfare in precision targeting, surveillance and cyber. But Ukraine has yet to rely too much on old Soviet-era gear, guns, planes and tanks worn bare.

US military chief General Mark Milley has suggested that if Russian troops withdraw from Kherson, there is a chance to open peace talks.

This is wishful thinking, especially as long as Vladimir Putin rules in Moscow. The peace path must be followed, but it will likely be a messy one, like the one that led to the 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements, which ultimately went nowhere. But as US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan seems to be calculating, the stalemate with Russia will last a long time.

This means that Ukraine’s supporters in the Western alliance must adapt their strategic and security policies to the new reality, especially Britain. Britain is about to update its Boris Johnson-era foreign and defense stance, as outlined in the Integrated Review (IR) and Defense Command Paper of early 2021. Much has changed in the subsequent 18 months and a substantial reset is already underway.

The language of the IR, high on aspiration but low on usefulness, needs to be more realistic. The IR spoke of “Global Britain” and the “Tilt to the Pacific”. In reality, Global Britain is becoming more and more like Fortress Little Britain, and participation in the Pacific is only possible with interested partners and allies. To use the new buzz adjective in Whitehall, it can only be “episodic”.

Britain needs to focus thinking and ingenuity where security and resilience are the daily priority – at home and in the immediate North Atlantic neighbourhood. Moreover, it is where our true allies want us most.