The Electricity Regulation Committee warned that the risk to power security in Ireland was “acute” over fears of significant power cuts and collateral damage to government policies on climate change.
The latest risk register for the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) scored challenges to deliver at five out of five for impact, and four out of five for likelihood of occurring.
This created a risk calculated for 20 out of 25 that electricity needs would not be met between now and 2025.
It warned of the potential for “loss of load expectation, expectation exceeding target and/or significant events occurring during the period, such as significant outages”.
The risk registry added: “It has the potential to hinder public sentiment for the Climate Action Plan and the transition to a low-carbon future.”
The CRU also warned that inadequate resources are affecting its ability to meet its goals, exacerbated by requirements to accelerate work on climate goals and address supply challenges.
It said there was a risk of delays to key work, as well as the possibility of “burnout of existing staff and potential retention issues”.
It also said that recruiting new staff required significant effort and expense, but that the number of vacancies in the regulator had fallen to six, while two jobs are currently being advertised.
The CRU also said some resources have been allocated to priority areas, including security of supply.
The raw risk of underfunding was scored 25 out of 25, according to the registry released under Freedom of Information (FOI).
Concerns were also raised about the system to ensure that electricity demand can always be met for the next three years. This risk was scored at 15 out of 25.
A project management agency has been set up between CRU, Eirgrid and the Ministry of the Environment to tackle the shortage in the energy supply.
“This (office) coordinates regular update reports on the program, including current risks and issues and the status of the actions/restrictions,” the registry said.
Concerns were also raised about the CRU’s systems for managing records, with the risk of “loss, mismanagement or misuse” of data.
It said a new data retention policy was needed to ensure compliance with laws such as FOI and to manage “inefficiencies due to failure to request records or data.”
The CRU also pointed to the possibility that Brexit would complicate tendering with the utility regulator in Northern Ireland.
The risk register said: “As the UK is outside the EU, the
EU Exit Procurement Agreement will have legal implications for our ability to jointly issue contract notices for services.”
It said this carried a risk of inadvertently violating the procurement law with the potential for third-party claims for infringements.
However, a spokesperson for the CRU said these issues around joint procurement have since been addressed and closed.
A statement from the CRU said: “The CRU maintains a systematic risk management process to proactively identify, assess and mitigate risks to deliver commitments, including ensuring energy and water security, addressing climate change and protecting customer interests. .”