How real is the boom in the summer of 2022 and will it last? – The Hollywood Reporter

For the first time since the pandemic began, domestic box office sales passed nearly $1 billion in June as a semblance of normalcy returned to the multiplex. Hollywood studios released a small army of event titles that found their way, but executives remain concerned about a gap in the calendar once summer love is over.

The last time combined ticket sales reached $1 billion in any given month was in December 2019, when revenue rose to $1.16 billion. The final figures show that revenue in June 2022 is close to $986 million, according to Comscore. That number got a last-minute boost thanks to Minions: The Rise of Gru, die took in a massive $10.8 million in previews on Thursday afternoon on the last day of the month before opening to record numbers on the weekend of July 4.

Overall, June was a whopping 141 percent higher than the $409.2 million in June 2021, but 11.6 percent lower than the $1.114 billion in June 2019.

“It’s still a huge achievement. And figuratively, if the month comes in just a few cents less than the $1 billion milestone, it’s no less impressive,” Comscore box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian tells WebMD. The Hollywood Reporter

Still, the gloom lingers in June for some box office observers.

“In general, there’s a lot of celebration going on about the box office recovery,” one-stop studio executive tells THR† “Privately, there is a lot of concern about an emerging lack of product.”

Adds another Hollywood executive: “We are still in pandemic recovery mode and not back to pre-pandemic gross profits and attendance, but box office results this summer are significantly better than we expected.

The boom was led by Paramount and Skydance’s Top Rifle: Maverick, which has transformed into an unstoppable hit, grossing over $1.11 billion worldwide since its Memorial Day release and still going strong a month later. The only other title to surpass the $1 billion milestone in the pandemic era was December 2021 Spider-Man: No Way Home (it remains at nearly $1.9 billion). the top gun sequel is important because it attracted all audiences, not just superhero-obsessed fanboys.

Among the films that fueled the rally was Marvel Studios’ Doctor Strange in the multiverse of madnessreleased in early May has crossed $950 million worldwide, while June’s Jurassic World Dominion ran over $800 million worldwide during the holiday weekend of July 4.

Warner Bros.’ Elvis – Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis Presley biopic – also danced its way to a big opening win for a better-than-expected $51 million over the weekend of June 24-26, thanks to older moviegoers (nearly 30 percent of the opening weekend audience was older than 55).

Families were another challenging demo during the pandemic, but that story changes in a dramatic way with Illumination and Universal’s debut Minions: The Rise of Gruwhich opened on the long weekend of July 4 for a record-shattering $129 (or more, once the final numbers are in) to secure one of the best starts of all time for an animated movie, pandemic or no pandemic. Minions 2 helped lighten the arm bells that went off last month when June animated summer photo light year, from Pixar and Disney, opened for a lukewarm $51 million domestically. and while light year now that the $200 million mark has been cleared worldwide, including $100 million domestically, it is still considered a major disappointment.

Minions: The Rise of Gru comes full circle by indicating that all segments of the audience are willing to consider summarizing their pre-pandemic movie habits, provided there is a variety of offerings.

“I think it’s getting better and better. The biggest problem for the box office is the content. When there’s product depth, people seem to show up,” said Wall Street analyst Eric Handler of MKM Partners. “We will enter a typical summer deluge. Then there really isn’t much to gain.”

While the July tent has plenty of intriguing titles – including: Thor: Love and Thunder (8 July), no (July 22) and DC League of Super Pets (July 29) – the release calendar then becomes a big question mark for several months in terms of event rate. A possible outbreak in August is that of Sony bullet trainstarring Brad Pitt.

The next big superhero photo to arrive will be Warner Bros.’ Black Adamwhich debuts on October 21 opposite the Julia Roberts-George Clooney rom-com A ticket to paradisefrom Universal A week before, Universal’s Halloween ends opens in cinemas (the last picture has a lot of potential, but is still a genre title).

Analysts are counting on Thanksgiving and Christmas box offices to sum up the momentum of recent weeks.

As for year-end tent poles, some of the high-profile titles include Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda forever (November 11), Disney’s Animated Thanksgiving Offer Strange world (November 23), 20th century Avatar: The way of the water (December 16), New Line’s Shazam! Anger of the Gods and DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in boots: the last wish (both opened December 21) and Paramount’s Babylon on Christmas Day.

“Original films and low-to-mid-level releases before November will likely translate into a short ‘cooling off’ period before the film gets back on track for the holiday season and becomes a more fully formed 2023 release calendar,” said Shawn Robbins, a box office analyst with Box Office Pro

Dergarabedian and Robbins are among many analysts who believe domestic revenues could reach $7.5 billion to $8 billion by 2022, which would be about 70 percent of pre-pandemic levels. (In 2019, the North American box office posted $11.4 billion in revenue.)

Through July 4, 2022 domestic revenues were an estimated $3.9 billion, according to Comscore. That’s nearly 250 percent more than in 2021, but 32 percent lower than in 2019. Summer sales were $1.96 billion through July 4, nearly 200 percent more than the same period in 2021 and 15 percent less than in 2019.

Robbins says: “That’s a remarkable turnaround from where it was one and two years ago. While I’m hesitant to say that all audiences have returned, the trendline is getting closer to the point where most are willing.