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A prominent analyst covering Apple questions claims in a rumor that the company has scaled back its iPhone 14 orders, stressing that such a major supply chain event is unlikely to happen as reported.
A report came out Friday about Apple chip partner TSMC, which has reportedly reduced orders from three major customers. AMD, Nvidia and Apple would all cut spending due to a purported drop in demand.
‘s report DigiTimes indicates that Apple has reduced the first wave of mass production of the iPhone 14 series by 10%, from 90 million units.
TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo responded to the report early Saturday with a: tweet thread insisting that the rumored 10% cut is “not in line with my research” of the supply chain. Rather than a reduction, Kuo instead maintains a shipment forecast for the iPhone 14 in the second half of 2022 at approximately 100 million and 90 million units “for components and EMS, respectively.”
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My take on TSMC’s iPhone 14 orders rumored to be down 10%.1. TSMC’s iPhone 14 orders are rumored to be 10% off, doesn’t match my survey. I am currently maintaining my 2H22 shipping forecast for iPhone 14, about 100 mn and 90 mn units respectively for components and EMS.
— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) July 2, 2022
In explaining the dissent, Kuo points out that Apple’s delivery forecasts usually get “single-digit” rises and falls, including for new models before mass production.
Additionally, “Apple usually doesn’t significantly change shipping forecasts for new iPhones” due to double-digit percentage changes before release. Kuo says it will wait for it to launch new models and confirm “actual market demand” before making such changes.
In the case of a supply chain problem that causes a major shift in the shipment of new iPhone models before mass production begins, “Apple usually delays orders rather than cuts them,” Kuo offers.
Kuo also says the reasoning isn’t just for iPhones, but “applies to Apple’s other products as well.”
The dissent comes after Kuo posted details of a survey of Chinese distributors and retailers on June 30, which found that demand for the iPhone 14 “may be stronger than the iPhone 13” in the country.