MADRID – President Biden warned Americans after Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February: standing up to President Vladimir V. Putin could damage the US economy. “I won’t pretend this is going to be painless,” he said in comments in the East Room of the White House.
But few in Biden’s administration could have imagined how much domestic political and economic pain could come from the protracted war along Russia’s border: growing anger over $5 a gallon of gasoline, mounting frustration over rising food costs and rents, and mounting resistance against spending billions of dollars on a foreign conflict with no end in sight.
At meetings of the Group of 7 Nations and NATO this week in Europe, Mr. Biden and his allies hammered away at the idea that they must stand united against Russia as they draw new and firmer lines against what they see as predatory economic practices of China.
But the meetings also underlined the deep pressure of the war on Western leaders and consumers over energy costs that have risen as a result of tough sanctions against Russia and could mount up.
Despite all the steps Mr Biden and his allies have taken to counter Russian aggression — including a fast track to NATO admission for Finland and Sweden and a plan to limit the price of Russian oil exports — leaders have the long-term endgame is not described. battle of attrition.
Mr. Biden is already feeling political heat from his swift response to the invasion of Ukraine, though few of his opponents in the United States put it that way explicitly. His attempt to ban Russian oil imports shortly after the invasion was followed by global price spikes, which have eroded consumer confidence and threatened Democrats’ hold on Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. Republicans have tried to blame the president’s policies on energy and climate, but the invasion and the West’s response to it are the reasons for the wave.
If the war continues and Biden fails in his plan to keep Russian oil flowing at a hefty discount, some analysts say the oil price could skyrocket to $200 a barrel, which could mean $7 a gallon of gas or more — praise that, if they believed it, the hopes of re-election of Mr. seriously harm Biden.
A protracted conflict would also require the United States and its allies to find additional funds for military and other aid to Ukraine, on top of the $40 billion already approved by Congress this year. For now, it is only a small group of opponents who are questioning the spending, but that discontent could spread and form a line of attack for former President Donald J. Trump, signaling plans for a rematch with Mr. Biden in 2024.
Those currents make the coming months crucial for Mr Biden and his emboldened international coalition — a fact that government officials are beginning to acknowledge. Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on the sidelines of G7 meetings in the German Alps that allies would try to help Ukraine’s underprivileged forces gain as much influence in the war as possible before winter because “A protracted conflict is not in the best interests of the Ukrainian people, for obvious reasons.”
Mr Sullivan and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said this week officials would act swiftly to negotiate and implement the myriad unresolved details of the proposed cap on the price of Russian oil exports, promising drivers that at the gas pump would get lighting when it is installed. But many economists and energy experts doubt that the cap, which has never been attempted on a global scale like this, could be effective in the short term. Privately, some government officials admit it could take until late fall or longer.
European leaders have struggled more publicly this week with the pain of war for their citizens, especially the availability and price of energy. But in a few limited speeches in Germany and Spain, Mr. Biden has only expressed an ironclad determination to deter Mr. Putin’s aggression.
At a press conference at the end of the NATO summit in Spain, when asked how long US motorists could expect to continue paying higher gasoline prices, Mr. Biden was blunt.
“While it lasts,” he said, “so that Russia cannot, in fact, defeat Ukraine and go beyond Ukraine.”
Mr Biden also said he expected his oil cap plan to help consumers. “We think it’s possible,” he said. “It will lower the price of oil, and it will also lower the price of gasoline.”
Data released Thursday by the Commerce Department shows that war-affected prices, such as those for food and energy, continued to rise in May, while the growth rate of other prices leveled off. Mr Biden blamed Mr Putin.
“The reason petrol prices are rising is because of Russia,” he said at the press conference.
At the very least, there could be some temporary relief for American motorists. The average national price has fallen slightly in recent weeks and future contracts to buy gasoline have fallen much more, suggesting that gas stations may cut prices in July. But many analysts say they believe prices could rise again later this year as Europe’s ban on Russian oil imports comes into effect unless Mr Biden’s plan for a price cap succeeds.
The war between Russia and Ukraine and the world economy
A far-reaching conflict. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a ripple effect around the world, adding to the stock market woes. The conflict has caused staggering spikes in gas prices and product shortages, prompting Europe to reconsider its reliance on Russian energy resources.
The president’s focus this week on the war, energy price inflation and looming threats from China came through the exclusion of many of the issues that dominated his 2020 campaign — and the current controversies that have animated his party at home.
He and his fellow leaders rarely mentioned the Covid-19 pandemic. Mr Biden’s sprawling — and stalled — plans for new social programs were sidelined. Even climate change is usually relegated to lofty promises in public forums rather than concrete promises of action.
What government officials saw as a culmination of the G7 meetings — the agreement in principle to try to get Russian oil to the world market, but at deeply discounted prices that would deprive Mr Putin of revenue for his war machine — was the latest example of Mr Biden looking for solutions to the consumer pain caused by the war.
Top officials have reached out to Venezuela – a Russian ally that has been under US sanctions for years – about the oil supply shortage. The government has also enlisted the help of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey to get grain from Ukraine to alleviate food shortages.
And next month, Mr. Biden will travel to Saudi Arabia and meet in person with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, after repeatedly calling on the Saudis and other major oil producers to increase production. Biden was asked on Thursday whether he would personally push the de facto Saudi ruler for a raise, despite having once denounced the prince as an “pariah” over the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident, in 2018. . Biden said he wouldn’t.
Nevertheless, the need to respond to the rippling effects of the war has led Mr. Biden to at least consider what would have once been unthinkable. That underscores the reality for the president and his allies: there are few solutions to the current situation that do not have drawbacks.