Monkeypox is yet another warning shot to the world. The rapid spread of the virus in recent weeks has highlighted the highly realistic threat posed by the emergence of new infections and has shed a severe spotlight on the large gaps in the global response to disease efforts.
However, although some similarities can be drawn to the coronavirus, monkeypox is almost certainly not the next Covid-19.
That fact was reflected by a committee of experts appointed by the World Health Organization. The committee met on June 23 to decide whether to issue the highest warning of the World Health Organization.
I was a member of this committee. We conclude that the current outbreak does not constitute a “public health emergency of international concern” or PHEIC, although it is clearly an evolving threat that deserves urgent attention. WHO Secretary-General Tedros has accepted this recommendation.
PHEIC was declared six times in the past, in the early January 2020 of the coronavirus pandemic. However, monkeypox presents a very different situation. The virus is not so easily transmitted and is a DNA virus rather than an RNA virus like COVID-19, so it is less prone to mutations that can lead to dangerous mutations.
Moreover, thanks to the work to eradicate smallpox in our cousins, we already have many tests, treatments and vaccines to control it.
But that doesn’t mean we can discount the virus. While the Commission’s decision makes sense, it also noted the calm fact that monkeypox outbreaks have continued for years in Africa. Still, more than 40 diagnostic tests that help identify and quickly address the disease suddenly became commercially available only when the disease began to be detected in richer countries.
Change the biology of our planet
In the last 6 months, there have been more than 3,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox, predominantly in high-income countries, near 50. In contrast, monkeypox cases and deaths in Africa have averaged over 2,000 cases and deaths in Africa due to increased surveillance and reduced herd immunity since the end of smallpox vaccination in 1980. 50-100 people have died. Every year After 2017.
From mass vaccination programs to climate change, multiple factors are fundamentally changing the biology of our planet. As a result, the pattern of illness is changing. When Covid-19 was declared PHEIC, it warned the government of the need for action, which ultimately spurred an unprecedented global response. Like Sars-CoV-2.
However, while a pandemic like the full-blown Covid-19 remains a threat, frequent small but significant emerging infectious diseases are almost certainly part of everyday life. We need to take all outbreaks seriously, but it is not practical, feasible, or necessary to reproduce Covid-19’s response to every outbreak.
We cannot repeatedly divert global resources or blockade society as a whole. You cannot hijack research issues or relocate production lines for each new threat.
In short, events like this monkeypox outbreak are new and normal. How do you deal with that reality?
On the other hand, the sudden explosion of availability of monkeypox diagnostic tests can be seen as a welcome and positive lesson learned from the experience of Covid-19. CoV-2 began to gain momentum in January 2020.
But on the other hand, the concentration of monkeypox only when it circulates in the richer parts of the world reminds us of global health inequality. Would you like to continue to relive these endless cycles of panic and subsequent forgetfulness seen in Ebola and already beginning to see in Covid-19?