It was a move that sent shockwaves around the world because of the prospect of what Russian President Vladimir Putin might do next after crushing Ukraine.
What no one expected was that the Ukrainian people would fight back so stubbornly and keep the Russians at bay.
Christchurch war journalist Tom Mutch has been covering the conflict since its inception and is currently on his way back to the country to continue his work.
Speak against The front page podcast heading to Ukraine, the former Burnside High student says it’s difficult to quantify exactly how many lives have been lost since the fighting began 12 months ago.
“Military statistics are pretty well kept secret, especially in Ukraine,” says Mutch.
“Very few people know what the actual military casualties are… The estimates I have heard on the Ukrainian side are around 30,000, and probably more on the Russian side, around 50,000 to 60,000. But the Ukrainian numbers could be more than double.”
War journalist Tom Mutch. Photo: Delivered
Mutch says neither side is willing to release this information because of the dire impact it could have on the morale of their respective armies.
“Ukrainians believe that if they revealed the exact numbers it would have quite a detrimental effect on morale as people will be shocked by the number of deaths. And that could also mean that soldiers are less likely to volunteer.”
This war also has major geopolitical ramifications, with both the United States and China watching closely what is happening.
This week, US President Joe Biden visited Ukraine, while top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi visited Moscow.
Mutch says the significance of Biden’s visit in particular should not be underestimated.
“What Biden effectively did was risk his personal credibility and that of his entire administration. In fact, by going to Kiev, he said that he would support them to the utmost. What this means is that the Americans are basically drawing a line in the sand that as long as Ukraine continues to fight, they will continue to fund and fund that war effort.
China’s position is more complicated, however, as it has claimed neutrality since the start of this war. Beijing has even gone so far as to suggest they could play a role in brokering a peace deal between the warring nations.
But Mutch believes this is unlikely.
“I don’t think there are many chances for something like this to come to fruition quickly. And the reason for that is that both sides believe they can still make serious military gains in the coming year. And while both sides think they can get a better military footprint or take more territory from the other side, this war will not end up on the negotiating table.”
Mutch says any prospect of negotiation will not be possible until both sides have beaten each other to a pulp and a major military breakthrough has been achieved.
“You’ll probably have to wait another year or so until both sides are effectively out of manpower or ammunition and can’t really sustain the battle any longer…
“I would be surprised if we didn’t have this conversation on February 23 or 24 next year. Although, by then we’ll have a pretty clear idea of who’s going to be the winner. But for now there is still more blood to be shed.”
- Listen to this episode of The front page podcast for the full discussion of the war, Ukrainian determination and what it takes to stop the Russian offensive.
- The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available every weekday from 5am.
- You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple podcasts, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts from.
-By Damien Venuto