New Zealand is completely opening up to the world, but how prepared are we?

All tourists will be welcomed back to New Zealand from 11:59 PM on Sunday. Economists think they may be our best chance of getting out of a recession, but operators say the tourism recovery will be slow. Kelly Dennett reports.

When the Pacific Explorer docks in Auckland in two weeks, Kevin O’Sullivan will welcome passengers there.

The New Zealand Cruise Association director admits that in March 2020 – the last time cruise ships docked in New Zealand – he called the border closures a “short break”.

“I didn’t expect to be sitting here in July 2022 waiting for the first ship to return. It was hard, quite depressing at times, but getting higher and higher. I’m really looking forward to it [welcoming the ships back].”

While Kiwis, and many Australians and Americans, have supported tourism since April and May, from 11:59 pm on Sundays tourists and students who did not qualify before under a visa waiver scheme to come to New Zealand can apply to land, and cruise ships can finally enter again.

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The Pacific Explorer will dock in August, but the season really kicks off in October, and O’Sullivan says utilization rates on even the larger vessels are high — about 70-80% — while the smaller ones are full.

But it’s what tourists will find on dry land that worries O’Sullivan. He has looked around as hospitality and tourism groups struggle with staff.

O’Sullivan is not alone in asking, after more than two years… no migration, skills shortages and disease, will operators have the capacity to properly serve tourists?

Scenic Hotel Group boss Karl Luxon said the feedback from agents was that people were canceling because operators were struggling to find staff.

“When we talk to operators, they say ‘we can’t find the tour bus driver and guides’.”

Anna Black, executive director of General Travel, was in Los Angeles this week, along with Tourism New Zealand and other operators, touting Aotearoa as a place open to tourism.

Feedback from agents there has been positive, Black says, and it shows in their bookings. The inbound tour operator is “very busy” for the rest of the year.

But, says Black: “We are concerned about the service. As an intermediary we are [only] working with operators we know and trust will make it possible. ”

Director of luxury services firm Southern Crossings, Sarah Farag, agrees.

“If we can’t get them a hotel room, a guide, a booking in a restaurant – if we’re not served at the level and standard we’re used to, we’ll say no first.

“What we need are guides who speak in different languages. We need more [workers] and we need them now… it is very difficult to turn the generator back on.”

It’s the glint of a jewel in the tourism crown that economists pin their hopes on to avoid a recession. Pre-pandemic cruise visits were worth more than $500 million annually, of which $356 million was spent on land.

This week, Infometrics chief economist Brad Olsen said that summer tourism would cause a temporary and uneven rebound in economic activity, and he predicted it would boost GDP growth. But even then, Olsen saw challenges ahead, suggesting that visitor numbers could be hampered by the global economy and fuel prices.

“And the tourism industry could struggle to meet rising demand given the lack of available workers.”

Pre-Covid New Zealand welcomed about 50,000 working holidaymakers annually, but by the end of June Immigration New Zealand had received 15,695 applications – of which only 10,146 had been approved.

The new accredited employer’s work visa, which started receiving applications from July 4, touted by the government as a major step forward in reconnecting New Zealand, has had only 150 applicants to date.

Meanwhile, students cannot work and live here, and Kiwis are going abroad to sunnier meadows.

A tourism industry report released Friday revealed that about a third of businesses were ready to limit occupancy or customer numbers, or reduce service or offerings. Half of those surveyed had no confidence in attracting or retaining staff.

Brian Westwood, president of the Backpacker Youth and Adventure Tourism Association, says staff will be the biggest handbrake to recovery and rejects calls that raising wages is the solution.

He says employees just aren’t there and companies will have to adapt.

But since tourists and locals alike have seen the world without creeping tourism, he believes the demand for a more sustainable model is well-timed.

“A lot of consumers say, ‘We don’t want to have such a big impact on the destinations we visit, how can we do better?'”

The director of the Tourism Export Council, Lynda Keene, said the return of working holidaymakers “cannot come soon enough”.

“From a business viability perspective, there is still a long way to go before companies go into the black.

“Just because the border is now open doesn’t mean companies are back and trading at full capacity. This will take time.”

Keene said that during the winter, ski destinations such as Queenstown and Ruapehu had seen many Australian tourists, but other centers and regions, such as the west coast, Auckland and Wellington, could experience more of a trickle.

Other concerns cited by industry peers included airfare rates and limited schedules, the Immigration Department’s ability to keep up with the influx of visa applications, and the number of tourists who would have credit, meaning some things wouldn’t be new.

But companies were optimistic. Karl Luxon has been busy planning the reopening of the Te Waionui Forest Retreat on the west coast, which had been closed for two years but welcomed guests in October, and Sarah Farag says the challenges facing the industry are solvable: There is not much we can do about a closed border.”

Tourism Minister Stuart Nash said the opening of the border was a milestone in New Zealand’s reconnection plan, and a $49 million Tourism Kick Start Fund would help businesses get excited.

Additional Report: Amanda Cropp.