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SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea reported no new cases of fever on Saturday for the first time since it abruptly admitted it had its first domestic COVID-19 outbreak and placed draconian restrictions on its 26 million people in May.
There are widespread outside doubts about the accuracy of North Korean statistics, as reported fatalities are too low and daily fevers have fallen too quickly of late. Some experts say North Korea likely manipulated the scale of illness and deaths to help leader Kim Jong Un maintain absolute control amid mounting economic difficulties.
The state’s northern anti-epidemic center said through state media it had found zero fever patients in the past 24 hours. It said the total caseload was about 4.8 million and about 99.99% of them have fully recovered. The number of deaths in the country remains at 74, a death rate of 0.0016% which, if true, would be the lowest in the world.
Despite the claimed zero cases, it’s unclear if and how soon North Korea would formally declare victory over COVID-19 and lift pandemic-related curbs, as experts say it could experience a viral resurgence later this year, like many others. to land. Recently, North Korea’s state media has repeatedly said it is stepping up and upgrading its anti-epidemic systems to guard against sub-variants of the coronavirus and other diseases such as monkey pox that are prevalent in other countries.
“The organizational strength and unity unique to the society of (North Korea) is fully manifested in the struggle to achieve a victory in the emergency anti-epidemic campaign by fully expanding the anti-epidemic policies of the party and the state. the official Korean central news agency said on Saturday.
North Korea’s claimed zero cases may still have symbolic significance in its efforts to establish Kim’s image as a leader who is in control of the outbreak much faster than other countries. Kim would need such credentials to gain more public support to overcome the economic hardships caused by pandemic-related border closures, UN sanctions and his own mismanagement, observers say.
“In North Korea, public health care and politics cannot be separated, and that aspect has come to light again with the outbreak of COVID-19,” said Ahn Kyung-su, head of DPRKHEALTH.ORG, a website focused on health problems in North Korea. “Since they started with manipulated data, they are now ending the manipulated data outbreak.”
The zero cases were widely expected as the daily rate of fever in North Korea has taken a nosedive in recent days — three cases reported on Friday and 11 on Thursday — from a peak of about 400,000 a day in May. The country, which has no test kits, has identified only a fraction of its 4.8 million fever patients as confirmed cases of COVID-19.
Many outside experts previously feared the outbreak would have devastating consequences in the north, as most people are believed to have not been vaccinated and are reported to be around 40% malnourished. But now activists and defectors with contacts in North Korea say they’ve never heard of anything called a humanitarian disaster in North Korea.
Indicating a waning outbreak, North Korea held mass maskless public events last week in the capital Pyongyang, where thousands of longtime Korean War veterans and others from across the country gathered to celebrate the 69th anniversary of the late 1950s. -53 war. At an anniversary ceremony, Kim hugged and exchanged handshakes with some of the veterans before snapping group photos with other participants. No one wore masks, according to state media photos.
Shin Young-jeon, a professor of preventive medicine at Hanyang University in Seoul, said North Korea would know that zero cases does not mean it has no COVID-19 patients, as there are likely to be asymptomatic cases. He said North Korea is unlikely to announce it officially overcame the pandemic anytime soon due to concerns about a resurgence.
“North Korea’s state media has already used expressions as if they are winning the battle against the virus. The only other expression they can use now is to declare that the coronavirus has been completely eliminated from its territory,” Shin said. “But if new cases surfaced again, North Korea would lose face.”
The only route for North Korea’s new viral spread from abroad is likely to be China, its main ally that shares a long, porous border with the country, and North Korea would likely find it difficult to handle victory over the pandemic. until China does, said Lee Yo Han, a professor at South Korea’s Ajou University Graduate School of Public Health.
The border between North Korea and China has been largely closed for more than 2 ½ years, except for a few months when it reopened earlier this year.
Some observers say the North’s heightened pandemic response has given Kim a tool to bolster his authoritarian rule amid public complaints about long-term restrictions. They say North Korea could report another small number of fever cases in the coming days.
Foreign experts struggle to judge the true number of fatalities in North Korea with authority. They note that the shortage of test kits in the north would also make it virtually impossible for the country to determine whether the elderly or others with underlying illnesses have died from COVID-19 or something else.
Shin, the college professor, stuck to his previous study that predicted North Korea would likely suffer 100,000-150,000 deaths. He said he used South Korean data showing that the death rate of unvaccinated people for the omicron variant, which North Korea admitted in May, was 0.6%.
Other experts say the number of fatalities in the north could be several thousand at most. They said higher death tolls must have been discovered by monitoring groups in North Korea.