The transition to electric driving in Norway continued to progress in June, with: share of plug-in electric vehicles of 89.9%, up from 84.9% year-on-year. Total vehicle volumes were down 27% year-over-year to 14,901 units. The Tesla Model Y was the best-selling car with 2,531 units.
Market share trends
May’s combined plug-in result of 89.9% included 78.7% full battery electrics (BEVs) and 11.2% plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). BEVs grew their share at 14% year-over-year, up 64.7%, while PHEVs lost just over 8%, from 20.3%.
Volumes of both plug-in types were down year on year, with BEVs (down 14%) particularly impacted by Tesla’s recent production pauses in Shanghai. The Model 3 and Model Y delivered 2,669 combined units in June, compared to 4,997 units at the end of the previous quarter. This dented total BEV volumes by a pro rata 2,328 units, more than responsible for the YoY contraction in June. This will revert to recent trendlines by the end of the third quarter.
Combined plugless volumes fell short, down more than 50% YoY, and with combined share just 10%.
bestsellers
In the June car rankings, the Tesla Model Y took first place, followed by its siblings, the Volkswagen ID.4 and Skoda Enyaq. The top five spots were filled by the BMW iX and Audi e-tron.
While Tesla’s result is somewhat expected, both the VW ID.4 and the Skoda Enyaq surprised with their best performances in the past 12 months (by far in the case of the Enyaq).
The only other notable news was the lack of a quarter-end emanating from Tesla’s Model 3, due to the aforementioned Shanghai issues. More about the scope of this below.
If we step back and look at the long-term view, we can get a better idea of recent trends:
The Tesla Model Y still leads, but the gap with the VW ID.4 and the lagging models is much narrower.
Here are the notable movements in delivery volume and rankings compared to the January to March quarter:
Lower down the table, the BMW i4, BYD Tang, MG Marvel R, Citroen e-C4 and BMW iX3 all grew in volume between 2x and 4x (though from more modest baselines), climbing the rankings. All are now firmly in the top 20.
Meanwhile, several other BEV models underperformed mainly due to temporary allocation reasons:
- The Tesla Model 3 lost ~90% of volume and dropped from 2nd to 41st due to those Shanghai closures
- The Audi Q4 e-tron dropped half its volume and dropped from 4th to 10th
- The volume of the Hyundai Ioniq 5 decreased by ~40% and fell from the 5th to the 9th
Most of the others only moved up a few spots. Relative newcomers to keep an eye on in the coming months are the Renault Megane and the Mercedes EQE.
Outlook
The only non-BEVs in Norway’s top 20 best-selling cars in June were two Toyotas. The 5th place was taken by the RAV4 (comes in HEV and PHEV versions, no sales breakdown data), and the 15th place was taken by the Yaris/Yaris Cross (comes in HEV and petrol versions).
The RAV4 makes little sense to me (as there are already very convincing BEVs in this class and price). Perhaps his clients are some of those people who live very remote and don’t yet have confidence in charging infrastructure in their area. All readers with local knowledge, please respond to the discussion below.
The Yaris makes more sense. Starting at just under €28,000, there aren’t many small hatchback BEVs to compete on both price and range. The now phased out VW e-Up! it was priced lower (and comparable in size), but with a WLTP range of 258km, it was nowhere near the Yaris for perceived competition as an all-rounder.
Meanwhile, the Peugeot e-208 and Opel Corsa-e are a match for the Yaris in terms of price and size, but some buyers may still feel they fall short in range. They have a WLTP rating of about 360km and a realistic hard Norwegian winter highway range of maybe 200-220km.
To beat the remaining non-plug-ins like the Yaris by BEVs in Norway, it takes the new generation of bottom-up, small BEVs, such as the BYD Dolphin and others, which are both affordable in price and usability (about 400 miles). WLTP, nearly 300 in winter). Until such attractive models are offered at lower prices (and in a few remaining niche segments), I don’t see how BEVs can close the last few percent of sales.
However, plugins will continue to climb towards the mid-90% in the coming months. All other things being equal, I expect September or December to see more than 88% BEVs along with 6% to 8% PHEVs, so about 95% plugins.
What do you think of Norway’s final steps towards 99-plus% plugins? How do you see it unpacking and how long will it take? Join the discussion below.
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