I would like you to consider the possibility that the political changes that have shaken this country in the past six years will be nothing compared to the changes that will shake it in the next six years. I would like you to consider the possibility that we are in some sort of pre-revolutionary period — the kind of moment that often gives birth to something shocking and new.
Look at the circumstances around us:
First, Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the state of affairs. Nothing but 13 percent of voters say the country is on the right track, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll published this week.
Second, Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the leaders of both parties. Joe Biden has 33 percent job approval review among registered voters. About half of Republican voters Continue of Donald Trump and find a new presidential candidate for 2024.
Third, inflation is rising. Throughout history, inflationary periods have often been associated with political instability. As the economist Lionel Robbins wrote of Weimar Germany, “inflation destroyed the wealth of the more solid elements in German society; and it left a moral and economic imbalance, a suitable breeding ground for the disasters that followed.”
Fourth comes the generational change. The boomer gerontocracy that now dominates power will no doubt retire, leaving a vacuum for something new.
Fifth, Americans are breaking away from the two political parties. Many more Americans consider themselves independents than to consider themselves Democrats or Republicans and Independents may become clearer. And there is some research that suggests increasingly independents are not only incarcerated members of the two main parties, but also have different beliefs, placing them between parties. Sixty-two percent of Americans to believe need a third party.
Sixth, there is great aversion to the current system. A majority of American voters believe that our system of government does not work, and 58 percent believe that our democracy needs major reforms or a complete overhaul. Nearly half of young adult voters believe that voting does not affect the way government works.
If these conditions continue, the 2024 presidential primaries could be wild. Of course, conventional candidates like Republican Ron DeSantis or Democrat Gavin Newsom can run for the nominations. But if the appetite for change is as strong as it is now, the climate will favor unconventional outsiders, the further outside the better. These kinds of eccentric or unexpected candidates can create a series of swings and imbalances that make existing party systems unstable.
Moreover, if ever there was a time for a Ross Perot-esque third candidate in the 2024 general election, now is it. Efforts are underway to pave the way for a third candidate, and in this environment an outsider, with no ties to the status quo, going against the establishment and on the idea that we need to fundamentally fix the system – well yes, that person could win the presidency.
These circumstances have already shaken up the stereotypes we used to think about politics. We used to think of the Democrats as the party of the economically disadvantaged. But highly educated metropolitan voters continue to flock to it and reform it more and more every year. In the Times/Siena Poll of registered voters, white college graduates wanted Democrats to control Congress by 57 to 36 percent. For the first time in the history of the survey, Democrats had a higher share of support among white college students than among non-white voters. These white voters are often motivated by social policy issues such as abortion rights and gun control.
Republicans used to be the party of business, but now they are emerging as a multiracial workers’ party. In the Times/Siena poll, Spanish voters were almost evenly split on whether they preferred Republicans or Democrats in the midterm elections. That may be an exaggeration how many Hispanics have shifted, but it looks like the Republicans are really becoming a white-and-brown workers’ coalition. These voters care about the economy, the economy and the economy.
In other words, we now have a progressive party of the establishment and a conservative party against the establishment. This is not normal.
If I were a cynical political agent looking to create a presidential candidate perfectly suited for the moment, I would start by making this candidate culturally conservative. I would like the candidate to show through dress, speech and style that he or she is not part of the seaside-trained establishment. I would like the candidate to connect with middle and working class voters about values and be completely patriotic.
Then I would make the candidate economically center-left. I would like to fuse the economic concerns of the working class Republicans with the economic concerns of the Bernie Sanders youth in one big raging populist package. College debt forgiveness. An aggressive housing project to lower prices. Whatever it cost.
Then I would have that candidate deliver an impartial message: Everything is broken. Then he or she would offer a slew of institutional reforms to match the comprehensive institutional reforms offered by the progressive movement more than a century ago.
I think I’m looking for some kind of modern Theodore Roosevelt. Well, I don’t know. What comes on the pike is probably so unpredictable that I don’t have any categories for it yet.