It was an inauspicious start to Donald Trump’s defense. The former president made a fat-fingered misspelling on his own social media, shouting in his signature caps on Truth Social that he had been “INDICATED” by “Radical Left Monsters.”
He didn’t (unless that’s some sort of QAnon cult shorthand), but he’s been “indicted”. British readers start here: that means he faces criminal charges. The first American president in history.
So what’s going to happen now? Are the allegations correct and the evidence piling up?
The charges are – as I write this – still sealed. In other words, no one has yet seen what New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg actually has on Donald Trump, but the investigation brings us to the falsification of his business records — with a potential knock-on effect on campaign finance.
It revolves around hush money that Trump paid Stormy Daniels in the days before the 2016 election — to prevent her from talking about the sex she had with him a decade earlier.
Stormy then fell silent. But not long after. I interviewed her in 2018 when she went curiously specific about the shape of the presidential penis. She was smart, fierce, eloquent and funny. And she actually decided it was “checkmate” on the president once he leaked her name into the public domain.
What a beloved irony. That the woman he paid to keep his mouth shut ends up bringing down his entire house of cards. That little piece of his anatomy does even more reputational damage than the fat finger mentioned earlier.
When news of the indictment broke — the details are still classified — Trump acolytes were quick to call it a political witch hunt.
Even senior Republicans who wanted to run against Trump in the presidential primaries voiced their outrage with concern.
Florida Governor Ron De Santis called it a “weaponization of the justice system.” Nikki Hayley, who walks a tightrope in her love and loathing for Trump, said it’s “more about revenge than justice”. Mike Pence, a man who served Donald Trump as his vice president but had to fight for his life against looting protesters at the Capitol, called the charges “outrageous.”
None, as you will notice, suggest that Trump himself is innocent.
Here’s the political crux: Those seeking the Republican nomination for president in 2024 believe they must tie themselves to a MAGA base. One base that believes the system is against them and all attempts to hold Trump accountable is political persecution. After all, it’s what Trump told them.
But support the former president too strongly and you send them straight into Trump’s arms. That’s not what they want either. Some have – shrewdly – opted for complete silence for now.
And even Democrats who scoff at the idea of a witch hunt will admit they’re unsure about the New York district attorney’s decision. Of all the things they have to say to Trump they will think inwardly – the attempted insurrection, the move to overthrow democracy, the begging for bogus votes in Georgia – are you bringing this up?
Is this the hill to die on – an actress, a few thousand pounds and a dodgy business deal? It has the scent of Al Capone. A way to catch gangsters, not autocratic charlatans.
And yet they must put their faith in this charge. You should start with the evidence you have, not the evidence you would like to have. And this evidence, remember, has already indicted, convicted, and imprisoned one man: Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen.
Last time they didn’t come for Trump because he was a sitting, serving president. This time he isn’t.
Much attention has been paid to the political capital Trump will reap from this move. He can play the martyr! Grab the headlines! Stun his opponents from any move against him!
Yet one rather important thing is being overlooked: Trump does not want to go to jail. He really doesn’t. He’s somehow evaded charges for the past 40 years. It was never the plan.
A man who knows how to court the voter, deceive the press, please the crowd and glorify an escalator is no longer in control of events. It is in the hands of a grand jury and a judge. And that is not easy for a control freak.
And Trump’s political opponents know to be careful. Any attempt to expand a misdemeanor charge into a criminally significant misdemeanor charge should be foolproof.
Any Democrat who believes in the rule of law cannot presume guilt. And any move that humiliates the president — a felony, a mug shot — can backfire on protest.
You have to go back 20 years to find the advice that should now serve as the accusers’ bible. A time when reality TV meant the gritty drama of The Wire, not the flashy guilt trip of The Apprentice. It was Omar who then warned:
“(When) you come to the King, you best not miss”.