For a man whose campaign was built on the inevitability of victory, Rishi Sunak could hardly be further from his target. Three weeks after Britain’s Conservative leadership race, polls suggest his opponent Liz Truss is almost out of sight.
his team undoubtedly overestimated his popularity with party members and underestimated Mrs. Truss.
The former chancellor could still turn the tables, although even his supporters consider it unlikely, save for a misstep by the foreign minister. Seasoned political campaigners say there are many reasons why the Sunak campaign has been a flop — and were clear from the start.
Some believe that his campaign would always be dead on arrival, thanks to his recent record in government and his backstabbing Prime Minister demeanor Boris Johnson. Others think he could have been ahead by now if he had “done his message well”.
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Everyone agrees that his turnaround in VAT cuts this week was a sign of panic and may have extinguished the sputtering candle of his leadership bid.
“Very simple, he’s fighting the wrong election,” said a veteran of multiple Tory leadership campaigns. “You only have to deal with the electorate in front of you, not the next. They are campaigning as if they are fighting for a general election, but they have to win it first.”
Even the fact that Mr Sunak chose not to wear a tie for TV debates was seen as a sign that he was trying to appeal to the general public, rather than Tory members, who would rather have their leaders buttoned up.
Allegations that Team Sunak doesn’t understand Tory membership are constantly popping up among MPs and strategists. Some blame Liam Booth-Smith, his former chief of staff at the Treasury and cornerstone of his campaign team, for failing to ensure his boss is fully involved in members’ views. Others blame his campaign manager Mel Stride MP. Many blame Mr Sunak himself.
“He has a very safe seat in Yorkshire where he can have barbecues for friendly Tory types in the garden of his country house,” said one MP. “He hasn’t spent enough time going up and down the country to find out what members are really thinking.”
Another catastrophic miscalculation was the backlash against him for his pivotal role in the overthrow of Mr Johnson.
“Rishi and his team seemed to think he would be hailed as a hero for stepping down and losing Boris,” said another Tory MP. “They thought Liz Truss would be sullied by standing with Boris. But the membership hates backbiters, as Michael Gove found out. Truss made the right decision to stay on as many of the members still prefer Boris over one of their own.”
Whether Mr Sunak could have done better is up for debate. Those who have sided with Mrs Truss believe his campaign was doomed to failure due to his high tax policies as Chancellor, but there are unbiased observers who believe he could have been in pole position now.
“He had the best prepared campaign and his team has been preparing for months,” said one strategist. “They had a big lead, but if you get the wrong message, it doesn’t matter how slick your campaign is.
“Their message was, you may not like my economy, but it’s a success, so stick with me and you’ll be fine.
“Instead they should have sold the fact that he has promised tax cuts for the next election, that he is the one who has spent £37bn (€44bn) on handouts to help with energy bills, and that more could be done. come. ”
For now, Mr Sunak must hope he can keep the gap small enough so that he can take advantage if Mrs Truss falters. “This is probably the first time in his life that he has to face the possibility of failure,” said a former colleague. “If he loses, it will take him a long time to get over it.” (© Telegraph Media Group Ltd 2022)
Telegraph Media Group Limited [2022]