he threatened with a second confidence vote on Boris JohnsonPrime Ministership has come a step closer on Wednesday as Conservative rebels warned they could change the party’s rules to expel the combatant Prime Minister†
Senior Tory MPs on the board of the 1922 backbench committee met today to set the timetable and procedure for the election of the new board, with speculation that a vote could be held by mid-next week.
After narrowly winning a confidence vote by 211–148 exactly one month ago, the commission’s current rules of 1922 state that Mr Johnson may not face another vote for 12 months.
But opponents of the prime minister would like to win a majority for the new 12-member executive to pass a rule change that would allow them to vote on Johnson much earlier.
There were also reports that the 1922 could immediately change confidence voting rules without the need to elect a new executive.
Conservative MP Andrew Murrison, who yesterday resigned his position as government trade envoy in protest at Johnson’s leadership, warned the prime minister today that if he did not stop now, the 1922 Committee would force him to leave.
“He must leave now with dignity… he must go now,” Murrison said. “If he doesn’t go now, he will inevitably.
“There is something inevitable about this. So either through more ministerial resignations… or 1922 will change the rules and we’ll be rid of him that way. But somehow this will happen.”
Although Johnson claimed his June 6 victory gave him a new mandate to lead his party, 41 percent of Conservative MPs voted against him, severely damaging his authority.
After yesterday’s wave of government resignations – which continued early this morning with three more as Will Quince, Robin Walker and Laura Trott announced their departures – it is likely that Mr Johnson’s support in the party has declined by at least 13 since that vote of confidence.
That means that if a new vote were taken now, Mr Johnson’s margin of victory would likely be reduced from 63 to less than 40.
And for the rebels to win a second confidence vote, they would likely need just 20 more Tory MPs who previously supported Johnson to switch sides to topple him.
If he were to lose an eventual confidence vote, Johnson would be unable to participate in a forthcoming leadership election, which saw former Chancellor Rishi Sunak and ex-Health Minister Sajid Javid — both of whom dramatically quit last night — the former Foreign Secretary. Jeremy could represent. Hunt and current Secretary of State Liz Truss.
Poll expert Sir John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, said there must be “just a risk that half the party now thinks the prime minister should leave”.
He said based on current public statements, at least 45 percent of the party was now against Johnson.
He added: “How much will Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid take? Sunak actively encourages people to say: let’s get rid of this man.” In an effort to fend off potential rebels, there are reports that Mr Johnson could be preparing to call an early general election.
But Sir John told LBC: “Well, sure, I think at this point you have to say that if the Conservatives were to speed up a general election, I’d probably be on a kamikaze mission.”
With Mr Johnson fighting to remain in office, sources said it is likely that a vote on the composition of the new 1922 executive committee, chaired by Tory grandee Sir Graham Brady, will take place before Parliament’s summer break on July 21.
Conservative MP Simon Hoare, chairman of the Commons Northern Ireland Committee, tweeted: “This will come as no surprise to those who know me, but I have written to Graham Brady asking for a rule change for the holding of confidence votes and a further confidence vote. being held in. Change is needed and needed now.”
But Bob Blackman, the 1922 Committee’s co-executive secretary, said there should be a “very high threshold” to justify a vote of confidence in a prime minister “very quickly” after an earlier vote.
He told Talk TV: “What we need to do is definitely have calm minds here because one of the other suggestions that are being made… is that you would reduce the time frame to six months. Six months brings you to the beginning of December.
“In my opinion you must indeed have a very high threshold to justify confidence votes very quickly after a previous confidence vote.”