Exceptional heat is possible for southern and central areas of the UK at the end of this weekend and early next week, according to the Met Office, with temperatures likely to rise above 35C in places. The extreme temperatures are likely to disrupt train services as many trains on the Avanti West Coast will be delayed in the coming days.
An Amber Extreme Heat Warning was issued for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, an impact-based warning designed to highlight impacts to protect lives, property and infrastructure.
Temperatures are likely to peak above 35C in the southern, central and eastern areas of England, and more generally around 32C in the warning zone.
Tuesday currently looks set to see the peak of this heat, although exceptional heat is likely during the warning period.
The train operator tweeted: “There will be disruption to services in the coming days due to a shortage of train staff and extreme weather conditions.
“On Saturday 16 and Sun 17 July, services may be canceled at short notice. Changed timetables and longer travel times are expected on Monday 18 and Tue 19 July.
“The services that do run from 16 to 19 July are expected to get very busy. Please check this before traveling on the morning of your trip.”
Temperatures will also remain high overnight, especially in urban areas, with a high probability of tropical nights – when minimums don’t drop below 20C – for some early next week.
A Level 3 UK Health Security Agency Heat Health Alert, which specifically targets people in the health and social care sector, has also been issued from Saturday to Tuesday, advising people to watch out for vulnerable people and those with underlying health conditions.
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The criteria for heat waves, which require exceeding certain temperature thresholds for three consecutive days, were already met in some locations earlier this week and are expected to be reached again early next week.
This is most likely in England and Wales, but also fairly likely for eastern Scotland.
For most of England and Wales, warm summer conditions will remain in effect for much of the week, albeit slightly less hot on Thursday, when temperatures are likely to peak for many in the mid-twenties.
High pressure near the southern half of the UK is responsible for this week’s warm spell and builds up again in the UK before Thursday, leaving the rest of this week largely dry and clear for many.
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Over the weekend, an evolving southerly current will allow very high temperatures currently emerging over the continent to spread northwards to the UK.
Further north, temperatures in excess of 25C can be seen in some places in the eastern areas of Scotland, well above the average for the time of year.
Meteorologist Tony Wardle, deputy chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “Maximum temperatures are well above average almost everywhere in the UK this week, with the exception perhaps of the western and northern islands of Scotland.
“After a return to more average, locally cool temperatures in the coming days, it looks like the warm weather will increase steadily this weekend, peaking early next week.
“From Sunday, but more likely Monday and Tuesday, maximum temperatures are likely to exceed 35C, particularly in central, southern and eastern England, with a chance of some locations getting even hotter.
“Otherwise, the maxima will generally range from high 20s to low 30s Celsius.
“This, coupled with nighttime minima not falling below 20C in many locations, has significant potential to have widespread societal impact, prompting the issuance of an Amber Extreme heat warning.”